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Weather & Climate in Bailey's Prairie, TX
Temperature, precipitation, air quality, natural hazards, and monthly weather data.
Bailey's Prairie has a warm climate with an average annual temperature of 71°F (22°C). Winters average 56°F in January while summers reach 84°F in July. The area gets 314 sunny days per year, well above the U.S. average of 205 / making it one of the sunnier locations in the country. Annual precipitation totals 53.4 inches (wetter than the 38-inch national average). Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 42. The city sits at an elevation of 28 feet.
Temperature
56°F Jan (13°C)
84°F Jul (29°C)
| Annual Average | 70.9°F |
| 31% above US avg | |
| January Average | 56°F (13°C) |
| July Average | 84°F (29°C) |
| Sunny Days | 314 days/yr |
Geography
| Elevation | 28 ft (9 m) |
| Area | 7.7 sq mi (19.9 km²) |
| Population Density | 104/sq mi |
| Coordinates | 29.1478°N, 95.4998°W |
| Timezone | America/Chicago |
| County | Brazoria County County |
| Nearest Airport | Texas Gulf Coast Regional (LJN) 4 miles away |
Precipitation & Snow
Air Quality
| AQI Median | 42.0 |
| Rating | Good |
Natural Hazard Risk
| Overall Risk | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk Score | 93.6 / 100 |
| Social Vulnerability | 24.0 / 100 |
| Community Resilience | 82.0 / 100 |
Hazard Breakdown
| Tornado | Relatively High |
| Hurricane | Relatively High |
| Earthquake | Very Low |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low |
| Flood | Relatively High |
| Hail | Relatively Low |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate |
| Winter Weather | Very Low |
| Lightning | Relatively High |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate |
| Landslide | Very Low |
| Coastal Flood | Relatively Moderate |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)
Earthquake History
3 earthquakes (M2.5+) recorded within 150 km since 1990. Strongest on record: M3.1.
| Feb 19, 2015 | 3 km N of Hallettsville, Texas | M3.1 | 144 km | 5 km |
| Jan 4, 1995 | 1 km NW of Hallettsville, Texas | M2.7 | 145 km | 5 km |
| Aug 24, 2021 | 3 km NNW of Hallettsville, Texas | M2.6 | 145 km | 5 km |
Source: USGS Earthquake Catalog (M2.5+, 1990–2025). Sorted by magnitude.
Hurricane History
17 hurricanes (Category 1+) recorded within 500 km since 1980. Strongest on record: Category 4.
| Year | Name | Category | Max Wind | Closest |
| 2024 | Francine | Category 2 | 92 mph | 290 km |
| 2024 | Beryl | Category 1 | 92 mph | 51 km |
| 2021 | Nicholas | Category 1 | 75 mph | 43 km |
| 2020 | Laura | Category 4 | 150 mph | 224 km |
| 2020 | Delta | Category 3 | 115 mph | 192 km |
| 2020 | Hanna | Category 1 | 92 mph | 228 km |
| 2017 | Harvey | Category 4 | 132 mph | 181 km |
| 2008 | Ike | Category 2 | 109 mph | 79 km |
| 2007 | Humberto | Category 1 | 92 mph | 88 km |
| 2005 | Rita | Category 3 | 121 mph | 185 km |
| 2003 | Claudette | Category 1 | 92 mph | 94 km |
| 1989 | Jerry | Category 1 | 86 mph | 49 km |
| 1989 | Chantal | Category 1 | 81 mph | 118 km |
| 1986 | Bonnie | Category 1 | 86 mph | 136 km |
| 1985 | Juan | Category 1 | 86 mph | 243 km |
| 1985 | Danny | Category 1 | 92 mph | 272 km |
| 1983 | Alicia | Category 3 | 115 mph | 34 km |
Source: NOAA IBTrACS (Category 1+, 1980–2026).
Tornado History
646 tornadoes (EF0+) recorded within 100 km since 1950. Strongest on record: EF4. Total: 26 fatalities, 745 injuries.
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Fatalities |
| Nov 21, 1992 | EF4 | 68 km | 30.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 12, 1961 | EF4 | 72 km | 1.0 mi | 8 |
| Dec 28, 2024 | EF3 | 96 km | 67.9 mi | 0 |
| Jan 24, 2023 | EF3 | 56 km | 23.3 mi | 0 |
| Mar 30, 2002 | EF3 | 70 km | 0.7 mi | 0 |
| Feb 5, 1986 | EF3 | 98 km | 5.0 mi | 2 |
| Dec 13, 1977 | EF3 | 73 km | 25.1 mi | 1 |
| Mar 8, 1976 | EF3 | 26 km | 12.7 mi | 0 |
| Dec 24, 1975 | EF3 | 98 km | 1.0 mi | 0 |
| Oct 28, 1974 | EF3 | 77 km | 3.3 mi | 1 |
| Sep 13, 1974 | EF3 | 54 km | 3.6 mi | 0 |
| Sep 8, 1969 | EF3 | 67 km | 0.8 mi | 0 |
| Apr 11, 1969 | EF3 | 41 km | 2.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 20, 1967 | EF3 | 100 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Sep 20, 1967 | EF3 | 86 km | 1.0 mi | 4 |
| Aug 18, 1967 | EF3 | 64 km | 0.5 mi | 0 |
| Apr 18, 1966 | EF3 | 10 km | 2.0 mi | 0 |
| Mar 28, 1966 | EF3 | 87 km | 9.3 mi | 0 |
| Apr 19, 1965 | EF3 | 59 km | 0.2 mi | 1 |
| Nov 22, 1961 | EF3 | 63 km | 2.0 mi | 0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center (EF0+, 1950–2024, US only).
Wildfire History
20 wildfires (100+ acres) recorded within 100 km. Largest: TXTMR FY17 RX WHARTON (5,175 acres, 2017).
| Year | Name | Acres Burned | Distance |
| 2017 | TXTMR FY17 RX WHARTON | 5,175 | 30 km |
| 2010 | WHARTON | 5,084 | 30 km |
| 2008 | COW TRAP 2008 | 4,335 | 36 km |
| 2017 | 2018 NORTH SARGENT WF | 3,959 | 39 km |
| 2009 | CHOCOLATE BAYOU UNIT | 3,790 | 29 km |
| 2020 | CHOCOLATE BAYOU | 3,623 | 28 km |
| 1997 | MOUND | 3,402 | 27 km |
| 2009 | ROAD PASTURE 2009 | 3,197 | 28 km |
| 1992 | SMITH MARSH | 3,057 | 38 km |
| 2006 | CATTAILS | 3,046 | 33 km |
| 2023 | TXBRR-FY23-RX-W | 2,511 | 24 km |
| 2017 | TXTMR FY17 RX BLUESTEM | 2,462 | 23 km |
| 2019 | TXTMR-FY19-RX-ALLIGATOR MARSH | 2,435 | 24 km |
| 2020 | BLUESTEM 1 | 2,417 | 23 km |
| 2022 | HOT BLUE STEM | 2,398 | 23 km |
| 2024 | BLUE STEM 24 | 2,328 | 23 km |
| 2001 | WHARTON HO | 2,263 | 29 km |
| 2016 | 2016 CRAWFISH BURN | 2,105 | 33 km |
| 2013 | UNNAMED | 2,070 | 23 km |
| 2020 | SMITH MARSH | 1,992 | 37 km |
Source: NIFC/IRWIN Wildfire Records (100+ acres).
Monthly Weather
| Month | Avg Temperature | Precipitation | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 56°F (13°C) | 4.1 in | Coldest |
| February | 56°F (13°C) | 3.3 in | |
| March | 63°F (17°C) | 3.0 in | |
| April | 69°F (20°C) | 3.0 in | Driest |
| May | 75°F (24°C) | 4.8 in | |
| June | 81°F (27°C) | 6.1 in | |
| July | 84°F (29°C) | 5.0 in | Warmest |
| August | 83°F (28°C) | 4.8 in | |
| September | 79°F (26°C) | 6.8 in | Wettest |
| October | 72°F (22°C) | 4.2 in | |
| November | 63°F (17°C) | 4.6 in | |
| December | 56°F (13°C) | 3.8 in |
Bailey's Prairie has a seasonal temperature swing of 28°F / from 56°F in January to 84°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 53.5 inches, with September being the wettest month (6.8") and April the driest (3.0").