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Weather & Climate in Bay Lake, FL
Temperature, precipitation, air quality, natural hazards, and monthly weather data.
Bay Lake has a warm climate with an average annual temperature of 74°F (23°C). Winters average 61°F in January while summers reach 84°F in July. The area gets 314 sunny days per year, well above the U.S. average of 205 / making it one of the sunnier locations in the country. Annual precipitation totals 50.6 inches (wetter than the 38-inch national average). Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 41. The city sits at an elevation of 86 feet.
Temperature
61°F Jan (16°C)
84°F Jul (29°C)
| Annual Average | 73.6°F |
| 36% above US avg | |
| January Average | 61°F (16°C) |
| July Average | 84°F (29°C) |
| Sunny Days | 314 days/yr |
Geography
| Elevation | 86 ft (26 m) |
| Area | 22.8 sq mi (59.1 km²) |
| Population Density | 1/sq mi |
| Coordinates | 28.3892°N, 81.5784°W |
| Timezone | America/New_York |
| County | Orange County County |
| Nearest Airport | Orlando International (MCO) 17 miles away |
Precipitation & Snow
Air Quality
| AQI Median | 41.0 |
| Rating | Good |
Natural Hazard Risk
| Overall Risk | Relatively High |
| Risk Score | 98.4 / 100 |
| Social Vulnerability | 31.7 / 100 |
| Community Resilience | 41.3 / 100 |
Hazard Breakdown
| Tornado | Very High |
| Hurricane | Relatively High |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate |
| Flood | Relatively High |
| Hail | Relatively High |
| Strong Wind | Very High |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate |
| Winter Weather | No Rating |
| Lightning | Very High |
| Drought | Relatively Low |
| Cold Wave | Very High |
| Landslide | Very Low |
| Coastal Flood | No Rating |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)
Hurricane History
23 hurricanes (Category 1+) recorded within 500 km since 1980. Strongest on record: Category 5.
| Year | Name | Category | Max Wind | Closest |
| 2024 | Milton | Category 4 | 132 mph | 42 km |
| 2024 | Helene | Category 4 | 138 mph | 266 km |
| 2024 | Debby | Category 1 | 81 mph | 235 km |
| 2023 | Idalia | Category 4 | 132 mph | 258 km |
| 2022 | Ian | Category 5 | 161 mph | 90 km |
| 2022 | Nicole | Category 1 | 75 mph | 153 km |
| 2021 | Elsa | Category 1 | 75 mph | 255 km |
| 2019 | Dorian | Category 3 | 115 mph | 229 km |
| 2017 | Irma | Category 3 | 115 mph | 64 km |
| 2016 | Matthew | Category 4 | 132 mph | 137 km |
| 2014 | Arthur | Category 1 | 81 mph | 299 km |
| 2005 | Wilma | Category 3 | 121 mph | 226 km |
| 2005 | Ophelia | Category 1 | 75 mph | 224 km |
| 2004 | Charley | Category 4 | 150 mph | 32 km |
| 2004 | Jeanne | Category 3 | 121 mph | 60 km |
| 2004 | Frances | Category 2 | 109 mph | 95 km |
| 2000 | Gordon | Category 1 | 75 mph | 222 km |
| 1999 | Floyd | Category 3 | 115 mph | 280 km |
| 1999 | Irene | Category 1 | 75 mph | 156 km |
| 1995 | Erin | Category 1 | 86 mph | 139 km |
Source: NOAA IBTrACS (Category 1+, 1980–2026).
Tornado History
772 tornadoes (EF0+) recorded within 100 km since 1950. Strongest on record: EF3. Total: 73 fatalities, 869 injuries.
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Fatalities |
| Feb 2, 2007 | EF3 | 71 km | 16.2 mi | 8 |
| Feb 2, 2007 | EF3 | 64 km | 26.0 mi | 13 |
| Feb 22, 1998 | EF3 | 17 km | 18.0 mi | 3 |
| Feb 22, 1998 | EF3 | 41 km | 16.0 mi | 13 |
| Feb 22, 1998 | EF3 | 20 km | 28.0 mi | 25 |
| Nov 1, 1997 | EF3 | 94 km | 3.0 mi | 0 |
| Apr 9, 1983 | EF3 | 95 km | 10.0 mi | 3 |
| Mar 19, 1981 | EF3 | 20 km | 8.0 mi | 0 |
| Dec 31, 1975 | EF3 | 96 km | 2.0 mi | 1 |
| Jun 19, 1972 | EF3 | 89 km | 4.9 mi | 0 |
| Mar 5, 1970 | EF3 | 80 km | 1.9 mi | 0 |
| Aug 18, 2020 | EF2 | 75 km | 4.6 mi | 0 |
| Oct 18, 2019 | EF2 | 65 km | 11.5 mi | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2017 | EF2 | 80 km | 1.6 mi | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2017 | EF2 | 40 km | 0.6 mi | 0 |
| Jun 24, 2012 | EF2 | 50 km | 6.2 mi | 0 |
| Dec 25, 2006 | EF2 | 76 km | 2.8 mi | 0 |
| Dec 25, 2006 | EF2 | 74 km | 0.8 mi | 0 |
| Mar 9, 1998 | EF2 | 63 km | 10.4 mi | 0 |
| Feb 22, 1998 | EF2 | 81 km | 5.0 mi | 0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center (EF0+, 1950–2024, US only).
Wildfire History
20 wildfires (100+ acres) recorded within 100 km. Largest: UNNAMED (121,213 acres, 1998).
| Year | Name | Acres Burned | Distance |
| 1998 | UNNAMED | 121,213 | 97 km |
| 1998 | UNNAMED | 45,954 | 73 km |
| 2011 | IRON HORSE | 18,234 | 77 km |
| 2001 | STAGECOACH COMPLEX | 14,079 | 23 km |
| 2006 | UNNAMED | 12,050 | 92 km |
| 2006 | JUNIPER | 11,998 | 93 km |
| 1998 | UNNAMED | 9,972 | 83 km |
| 1998 | UNNAMED | 9,705 | 85 km |
| 1993 | UNNAMED | 9,422 | 67 km |
| 1998 | UNNAMED | 8,794 | 80 km |
| 2017 | ECHO SPRINGS | 8,640 | 95 km |
| 1985 | UNNAMED | 8,382 | 86 km |
| 2009 | JUNIPER SPRINGS | 8,363 | 94 km |
| 1984 | UNNAMED | 7,765 | 64 km |
| 2004 | UNNAMED | 7,670 | 80 km |
| 2021 | AREA 11 | 7,140 | 92 km |
| 2017 | NORTH CANE | 7,024 | 67 km |
| 1989 | UNNAMED | 6,985 | 80 km |
| 1994 | UNNAMED | 6,243 | 99 km |
| 1993 | UNNAMED | 6,236 | 80 km |
Source: NIFC/IRWIN Wildfire Records (100+ acres).
Monthly Weather
| Month | Avg Temperature | Precipitation | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 61°F (16°C) | 2.4 in | Coldest |
| February | 62°F (16°C) | 3.1 in | |
| March | 66°F (19°C) | 3.4 in | |
| April | 71°F (21°C) | 1.9 in | Driest |
| May | 76°F (25°C) | 3.8 in | |
| June | 80°F (27°C) | 7.0 in | Wettest |
| July | 84°F (29°C) | 7.0 in | Warmest |
| August | 82°F (28°C) | 7.0 in | |
| September | 80°F (27°C) | 5.9 in | |
| October | 74°F (24°C) | 2.4 in | |
| November | 68°F (20°C) | 2.2 in | |
| December | 62°F (17°C) | 2.1 in |
Bay Lake has a seasonal temperature swing of 23°F / from 61°F in January to 84°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 48.3 inches, with June being the wettest month (7.0") and April the driest (1.9").