Weather & Climate in Lake Caroline, VA
Temperature, precipitation, air quality, natural hazards, and monthly weather data.
Lake Caroline enjoys a temperate climate with an average annual temperature of 58°F (14°C). Winters average 38°F in January while summers reach 78°F in July. Annual precipitation totals 45.8 inches (wetter than the 38-inch national average). The area receives 14.7 inches of snow annually. Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 39. 93% of days have good air quality. The city sits at an elevation of 213 feet.
Temperature
38°F Jan (3°C)
78°F Jul (26°C)
| Annual Average | 58.0°F |
| 7% above US avg | |
| January Average | 38°F (3°C) |
| July Average | 78°F (26°C) |
Geography
| Elevation | 213 ft (65 m) |
| Area | 2.8 sq mi (7.4 km²) |
| Population Density | 954/sq mi |
| Coordinates | 37.9873°N, 77.5195°W |
| Timezone | America/New_York |
| County | Hanover County County |
| Nearest Airport | Richmond International (RIC) 35 miles away |
Precipitation & Snow
Air Quality
| AQI Median | 39.0 |
| Rating | Good |
| Good Days % | 93.1% |
| Unhealthy Days | 0 |
Natural Hazard Risk
| Overall Risk | Relatively Low |
| Risk Score | 53.5 / 100 |
| Social Vulnerability | 10.6 / 100 |
| Community Resilience | 88.7 / 100 |
Hazard Breakdown
| Tornado | Relatively Low |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low |
| Wildfire | Very Low |
| Flood | Relatively Low |
| Hail | Relatively Low |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate |
| Drought | Relatively High |
| Cold Wave | Very Low |
| Landslide | Very Low |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low |
| Avalanche | Very Low |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)
Earthquake History
43 earthquakes (M2.5+) recorded within 150 km since 1990. Strongest on record: M5.8.
| Aug 23, 2011 | 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M5.8 | 38 km | 6 km |
| Aug 25, 2011 | 8 km SW of Mineral, Virginia | M4.5 | 40 km | 7 km |
| Aug 24, 2011 | 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M4.2 | 39 km | 0 km |
| Oct 21, 1998 | 13 km S of Dillwyn, Virginia | M3.8 | 102 km | 13 km |
| Mar 15, 1991 | 7 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia | M3.8 | 44 km | 16 km |
| May 5, 2003 | Virginia | M3.6 | 56 km | 13 km |
| Jul 16, 2010 | 5 km NNW of Barnesville, Maryland | M3.6 | 142 km | 7 km |
| Aug 24, 2011 | 16 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia | M3.4 | 42 km | 0 km |
| Sep 1, 2011 | 7 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M3.4 | 36 km | 3 km |
| Sep 22, 2001 | 5 km E of Pantops, Virginia | M3.2 | 77 km | 0 km |
| May 22, 2014 | 15 km ENE of Cumberland, Virginia | M3.1 | 70 km | 10 km |
| Jan 30, 2012 | 9 km SSE of Louisa, Virginia | M3.1 | 41 km | 3 km |
| Oct 2, 2010 | 10 km NNW of Ashland, Virginia | M3.0 | 15 km | 19 km |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 9 km S of Louisa, Virginia | M3.0 | 41 km | 4 km |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 13 km S of Louisa, Virginia | M3.0 | 42 km | 9 km |
| May 6, 2025 | 8 km S of Dillwyn, Virginia | M3.0 | 102 km | 8 km |
| Aug 3, 1995 | 13 km N of Williamsburg, Virginia | M2.9 | 98 km | 1 km |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 6 km SW of Mineral, Virginia | M2.8 | 38 km | 5 km |
| Aug 23, 2011 | 9 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M2.8 | 37 km | 0 km |
| Apr 21, 1998 | 1 km NNW of Free Union, Virginia | M2.8 | 94 km | 2 km |
Source: USGS Earthquake Catalog (M2.5+, 1990-2025). Sorted by magnitude.
Hurricane History
6 hurricanes (Category 1+) recorded within 500 km since 1980. Strongest on record: Category 2.
| Year | Name | Category | Max Wind | Closest |
| 2011 | Irene | Category 1 | 75 mph | 202 km |
| 2003 | Isabel | Category 1 | 75 mph | 144 km |
| 1999 | Floyd | Category 1 | 81 mph | 182 km |
| 1998 | Bonnie | Category 1 | 86 mph | 283 km |
| 1986 | Charley | Category 1 | 81 mph | 202 km |
| 1985 | Gloria | Category 2 | 104 mph | 248 km |
Source: NOAA IBTrACS (Category 1+, 1980-2026).
Tornado History
394 tornadoes (EF0+) recorded within 100 km since 1950. Strongest on record: EF4. Total: 26 fatalities, 581 injuries.
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Fatalities |
| Apr 28, 2002 | EF4 | 69 km | 38.0 mi | 3 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | EF4 | 76 km | 10.0 mi | 0 |
| Aug 6, 1993 | EF4 | 88 km | 1.0 mi | 4 |
| Feb 24, 2016 | EF3 | 50 km | 30.3 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF3 | 64 km | 9.0 mi | 0 |
| Apr 1, 1998 | EF3 | 15 km | 5.0 mi | 2 |
| Aug 6, 1993 | EF3 | 94 km | 2.9 mi | 0 |
| Oct 18, 1990 | EF3 | 53 km | 3.5 mi | 0 |
| Oct 18, 1990 | EF3 | 55 km | 5.0 mi | 1 |
| May 4, 1990 | EF3 | 79 km | 8.0 mi | 0 |
| Oct 14, 1986 | EF3 | 91 km | 5.0 mi | 0 |
| Jul 25, 1985 | EF3 | 82 km | 0.2 mi | 0 |
| May 8, 1984 | EF3 | 86 km | 2.0 mi | 0 |
| May 8, 1984 | EF3 | 79 km | 5.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 5, 1979 | EF3 | 96 km | 17.9 mi | 1 |
| Jan 26, 1978 | EF3 | 60 km | 0.7 mi | 1 |
| Jul 9, 1977 | EF3 | 52 km | 5.9 mi | 0 |
| Mar 21, 1976 | EF3 | 83 km | 5.6 mi | 0 |
| Apr 1, 1973 | EF3 | 92 km | 9.8 mi | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1966 | EF3 | 68 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center (EF0+, 1950-2024, US only).
Wildfire History
7 wildfires (100+ acres) recorded within 100 km. Largest: PINNACLES (24,792 acres, 2000).
| Year | Name | Acres Burned | Distance |
| 2000 | PINNACLES | 24,792 | 97 km |
| 1999 | BOOTEN GAP | 1,652 | 97 km |
| 2011 | CHOPPING ROAD | 889 | 34 km |
| 1999 | NCO | 816 | 64 km |
| 2008 | GOLD HILL | 807 | 89 km |
| 2011 | ROSEMONT | 629 | 96 km |
| 2019 | VAJRR-FY19-RX-FUEL REDUCTION | 514 | 86 km |
Source: NIFC/IRWIN Wildfire Records (100+ acres).
Monthly Weather
| Month | Avg Temperature | Precipitation | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 38°F (3°C) | 3.5 in | Coldest |
| February | 40°F (5°C) | 2.9 in | Driest |
| March | 48°F (9°C) | 3.9 in | |
| April | 57°F (14°C) | 3.4 in | |
| May | 66°F (19°C) | 4.3 in | |
| June | 74°F (23°C) | 4.1 in | |
| July | 78°F (26°C) | 4.0 in | Warmest |
| August | 77°F (25°C) | 4.9 in | Wettest |
| September | 70°F (21°C) | 4.0 in | |
| October | 59°F (15°C) | 3.7 in | |
| November | 49°F (9°C) | 3.4 in | |
| December | 41°F (5°C) | 3.7 in |
Lake Caroline has a seasonal temperature swing of 41°F / from 38°F in January to 78°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 45.8 inches, with August being the wettest month (4.9") and February the driest (2.9").