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Weather & Climate in Lake Monticello, VA
Temperature, precipitation, air quality, natural hazards, and monthly weather data.
Lake Monticello experiences four distinct seasons with an average annual temperature of 55°F (13°C). Winters average 35°F in January while summers reach 76°F in July. The area gets 305 sunny days per year, well above the U.S. average of 205 / making it one of the sunnier locations in the country. Annual precipitation totals 43.7 inches. The area receives 12.3 inches of snow annually. Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 35. The city sits at an elevation of 360 feet.
Temperature
35°F Jan (2°C)
76°F Jul (24°C)
| Annual Average | 55.3°F |
| 2% above US avg | |
| January Average | 35°F (2°C) |
| July Average | 76°F (24°C) |
| Sunny Days | 305 days/yr |
Geography
| Elevation | 360 ft (110 m) |
| Area | 8.9 sq mi (22.9 km²) |
| Population Density | 1,223/sq mi |
| Coordinates | 37.9198°N, 78.3319°W |
| Timezone | America/New_York |
| County | Fluvanna County County |
| Nearest Airport | Shenandoah Valley Regional (SHD) 39 miles away |
Precipitation & Snow
Air Quality
| AQI Median | 35.0 |
| Rating | Good |
Natural Hazard Risk
| Overall Risk | Very Low |
| Risk Score | 13.5 / 100 |
| Social Vulnerability | 26.9 / 100 |
| Community Resilience | 59.5 / 100 |
Hazard Breakdown
| Tornado | Very Low |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low |
| Wildfire | Very Low |
| Flood | Very Low |
| Hail | Very Low |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low |
| Heat Wave | Very Low |
| Winter Weather | Very Low |
| Lightning | Relatively Low |
| Ice Storm | Very Low |
| Drought | Relatively Low |
| Cold Wave | Very Low |
| Landslide | Very Low |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)
Earthquake History
39 earthquakes (M2.5+) recorded within 150 km since 1990. Strongest on record: M5.8.
| Aug 23, 2011 | 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M5.8 | 35 km | 6 km |
| Aug 25, 2011 | 8 km SW of Mineral, Virginia | M4.5 | 32 km | 7 km |
| Aug 24, 2011 | 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M4.2 | 33 km | 0 km |
| Oct 21, 1998 | 13 km S of Dillwyn, Virginia | M3.8 | 56 km | 13 km |
| Mar 15, 1991 | 7 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia | M3.8 | 42 km | 16 km |
| May 5, 2003 | Virginia | M3.6 | 47 km | 13 km |
| Aug 24, 2011 | 16 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia | M3.4 | 35 km | 0 km |
| Sep 1, 2011 | 7 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M3.4 | 35 km | 3 km |
| Sep 22, 2001 | 5 km E of Pantops, Virginia | M3.2 | 13 km | 0 km |
| May 22, 2014 | 15 km ENE of Cumberland, Virginia | M3.1 | 49 km | 10 km |
| Jan 30, 2012 | 9 km SSE of Louisa, Virginia | M3.1 | 31 km | 3 km |
| Oct 2, 2010 | 10 km NNW of Ashland, Virginia | M3.0 | 72 km | 19 km |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 9 km S of Louisa, Virginia | M3.0 | 31 km | 4 km |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 13 km S of Louisa, Virginia | M3.0 | 30 km | 9 km |
| May 6, 2025 | 8 km S of Dillwyn, Virginia | M3.0 | 52 km | 8 km |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 6 km SW of Mineral, Virginia | M2.8 | 34 km | 5 km |
| Aug 23, 2011 | 9 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M2.8 | 35 km | 0 km |
| Apr 21, 1998 | 1 km NNW of Free Union, Virginia | M2.8 | 35 km | 2 km |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 km NNE of Wyndham, Virginia | M2.8 | 68 km | 0 km |
| Nov 25, 2009 | 14 km S of Arrington, Virginia | M2.7 | 62 km | 0 km |
Source: USGS Earthquake Catalog (M2.5+, 1990–2025). Sorted by magnitude.
Hurricane History
4 hurricanes (Category 1+) recorded within 500 km since 1980. Strongest on record: Category 1.
| Year | Name | Category | Max Wind | Closest |
| 2011 | Irene | Category 1 | 75 mph | 267 km |
| 2003 | Isabel | Category 1 | 75 mph | 147 km |
| 1999 | Floyd | Category 1 | 81 mph | 233 km |
| 1986 | Charley | Category 1 | 81 mph | 262 km |
Source: NOAA IBTrACS (Category 1+, 1980–2026).
Tornado History
253 tornadoes (EF0+) recorded within 100 km since 1950. Strongest on record: EF4. Total: 19 fatalities, 86 injuries.
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Fatalities |
| Sep 24, 2001 | EF4 | 79 km | 10.0 mi | 0 |
| Feb 24, 2016 | EF3 | 89 km | 16.9 mi | 1 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF3 | 81 km | 9.0 mi | 0 |
| Apr 1, 1998 | EF3 | 63 km | 5.0 mi | 2 |
| Oct 18, 1990 | EF3 | 53 km | 3.5 mi | 0 |
| May 4, 1990 | EF3 | 81 km | 8.0 mi | 0 |
| Jul 25, 1985 | EF3 | 32 km | 0.2 mi | 0 |
| May 22, 1983 | EF3 | 99 km | 3.5 mi | 0 |
| Jul 9, 1977 | EF3 | 37 km | 5.9 mi | 0 |
| Mar 21, 1976 | EF3 | 48 km | 5.6 mi | 0 |
| Jun 16, 1966 | EF3 | 59 km | 1.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 30, 1959 | EF3 | 29 km | 0.8 mi | 11 |
| Sep 30, 1959 | EF3 | 6 km | 6.5 mi | 0 |
| Sep 30, 1959 | EF3 | 43 km | 2.0 mi | 1 |
| Apr 19, 2019 | EF2 | 46 km | 2.0 mi | 0 |
| Oct 11, 2018 | EF2 | 87 km | 1.6 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2018 | EF2 | 85 km | 7.5 mi | 1 |
| Apr 28, 2011 | EF2 | 98 km | 33.5 mi | 0 |
| May 8, 2008 | EF2 | 86 km | 3.4 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF2 | 41 km | 5.0 mi | 0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center (EF0+, 1950–2024, US only).
Wildfire History
20 wildfires (100+ acres) recorded within 100 km. Largest: PINNACLES (24,792 acres, 2000).
| Year | Name | Acres Burned | Distance |
| 2000 | PINNACLES | 24,792 | 75 km |
| 2016 | MOUNT PLEASANT | 11,001 | 77 km |
| 2016 | ROCKY MTN FIRE 2016 | 9,299 | 52 km |
| 2024 | WATERFALL MOUNTAIN | 9,251 | 87 km |
| 2014 | ARCHER KNOB RX | 6,093 | 94 km |
| 2022 | UNNAMED | 5,893 | 94 km |
| 2013 | UNNAMED | 4,687 | 96 km |
| 2002 | FULTZ RUN | 4,638 | 69 km |
| 2008 | ST MARYS | 4,373 | 71 km |
| 1999 | SHOP RUN | 4,261 | 48 km |
| 1986 | BIG RUN | 4,161 | 52 km |
| 2018 | UNNAMED | 4,022 | 96 km |
| 2012 | SHIPWRECK | 3,779 | 71 km |
| 2021 | UNNAMED | 3,667 | 74 km |
| 2006 | PEAVINE COMPLEX | 2,950 | 95 km |
| 2014 | CUB RUN RX | 2,868 | 74 km |
| 2011 | VALLEY | 2,514 | 90 km |
| 2019 | UNNAMED | 2,460 | 89 km |
| 2012 | NEIGHBOR MTN FIRE | 1,986 | 86 km |
| 2010 | HONE QUARRY | 1,827 | 98 km |
Source: NIFC/IRWIN Wildfire Records (100+ acres).
Monthly Weather
| Month | Avg Temperature | Precipitation | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 35°F (2°C) | 3.3 in | Coldest |
| February | 38°F (3°C) | 3.0 in | Driest |
| March | 46°F (8°C) | 3.8 in | |
| April | 56°F (13°C) | 3.2 in | |
| May | 64°F (18°C) | 4.3 in | |
| June | 72°F (22°C) | 3.7 in | |
| July | 76°F (24°C) | 4.5 in | Warmest, Wettest |
| August | 75°F (24°C) | 3.9 in | |
| September | 68°F (20°C) | 3.8 in | |
| October | 57°F (14°C) | 4.1 in | |
| November | 47°F (9°C) | 3.5 in | |
| December | 39°F (4°C) | 3.1 in |
Lake Monticello has a seasonal temperature swing of 41°F / from 35°F in January to 76°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 44.2 inches, with July being the wettest month (4.5") and February the driest (3.0").