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Weather & Climate in Nokesville, VA
Temperature, precipitation, air quality, natural hazards, and monthly weather data.
Nokesville experiences four distinct seasons with an average annual temperature of 55°F (13°C). Winters average 34°F in January while summers reach 75°F in July. The area gets 297 sunny days per year, well above the U.S. average of 205 / making it one of the sunnier locations in the country. Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 35. The city sits at an elevation of 266 feet.
Temperature
34°F Jan (1°C)
75°F Jul (24°C)
| Annual Average | 54.9°F |
| 2% above US avg | |
| January Average | 34°F (1°C) |
| July Average | 75°F (24°C) |
| Sunny Days | 297 days/yr |
Geography
| Elevation | 266 ft (81 m) |
| Area | 9.6 sq mi (24.8 km²) |
| Population Density | 123/sq mi |
| Coordinates | 38.6930°N, 77.5764°W |
| Timezone | America/New_York |
| County | Prince William County County |
| Nearest Airport | Manassas Regional/Harry P Davis Field (MNZ) 4 miles away |
Precipitation & Snow
Air Quality
| AQI Median | 35.0 |
| Rating | Good |
Natural Hazard Risk
| Overall Risk | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk Score | 83.2 / 100 |
| Social Vulnerability | 10.6 / 100 |
| Community Resilience | 40.2 / 100 |
Hazard Breakdown
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low |
| Wildfire | Very Low |
| Flood | Relatively Moderate |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High |
| Lightning | Relatively High |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low |
| Drought | Relatively Low |
| Cold Wave | Very Low |
| Landslide | Very Low |
| Coastal Flood | Relatively Low |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)
Earthquake History
43 earthquakes (M2.5+) recorded within 150 km since 1990. Strongest on record: M5.8.
| Aug 23, 2011 | 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M5.8 | 93 km | 6 km |
| Aug 25, 2011 | 8 km SW of Mineral, Virginia | M4.5 | 90 km | 7 km |
| Aug 24, 2011 | 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M4.2 | 93 km | 0 km |
| Mar 15, 1991 | 7 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia | M3.8 | 109 km | 16 km |
| Jul 16, 2010 | 5 km NNW of Barnesville, Maryland | M3.6 | 65 km | 7 km |
| May 5, 2003 | Virginia | M3.6 | 123 km | 13 km |
| Aug 24, 2011 | 16 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia | M3.4 | 102 km | 0 km |
| Sep 1, 2011 | 7 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M3.4 | 88 km | 3 km |
| Sep 22, 2001 | 5 km E of Pantops, Virginia | M3.2 | 103 km | 0 km |
| Jan 30, 2012 | 9 km SSE of Louisa, Virginia | M3.1 | 90 km | 3 km |
| May 22, 2014 | 15 km ENE of Cumberland, Virginia | M3.1 | 136 km | 10 km |
| Jan 17, 2016 | 3 km NE of Ranson, West Virginia | M3.0 | 73 km | 5 km |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 9 km S of Louisa, Virginia | M3.0 | 91 km | 4 km |
| Oct 2, 2010 | 10 km NNW of Ashland, Virginia | M3.0 | 94 km | 19 km |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 13 km S of Louisa, Virginia | M3.0 | 95 km | 9 km |
| Sep 15, 2019 | 5 km ESE of East Berlin, Pennsylvania | M2.8 | 148 km | 5 km |
| Apr 21, 1998 | 1 km NNW of Free Union, Virginia | M2.8 | 104 km | 2 km |
| Aug 23, 2011 | 9 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M2.8 | 90 km | 0 km |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 6 km SW of Mineral, Virginia | M2.8 | 88 km | 5 km |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 km NNE of Wyndham, Virginia | M2.8 | 110 km | 0 km |
Source: USGS Earthquake Catalog (M2.5+, 1990–2025). Sorted by magnitude.
Hurricane History
5 hurricanes (Category 1+) recorded within 500 km since 1980. Strongest on record: Category 2.
| Year | Name | Category | Max Wind | Closest |
| 2011 | Irene | Category 1 | 75 mph | 234 km |
| 2003 | Isabel | Category 1 | 75 mph | 222 km |
| 1999 | Floyd | Category 1 | — | 247 km |
| 1986 | Charley | Category 1 | 81 mph | 253 km |
| 1985 | Gloria | Category 2 | 98 mph | 270 km |
Source: NOAA IBTrACS (Category 1+, 1980–2026).
Tornado History
442 tornadoes (EF0+) recorded within 100 km since 1950. Strongest on record: EF4. Total: 10 fatalities, 311 injuries.
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Fatalities |
| Apr 28, 2002 | EF4 | 38 km | 38.0 mi | 3 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | EF4 | 38 km | 10.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF3 | 27 km | 9.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | EF3 | 58 km | 17.5 mi | 2 |
| Apr 1, 1998 | EF3 | 91 km | 5.0 mi | 2 |
| Oct 18, 1990 | EF3 | 56 km | 3.5 mi | 0 |
| Jul 25, 1985 | EF3 | 92 km | 0.2 mi | 0 |
| Sep 5, 1979 | EF3 | 44 km | 17.9 mi | 1 |
| Jan 26, 1978 | EF3 | 32 km | 0.7 mi | 1 |
| Mar 21, 1976 | EF3 | 77 km | 5.6 mi | 0 |
| Apr 1, 1973 | EF3 | 25 km | 9.8 mi | 0 |
| Sep 30, 1959 | EF3 | 86 km | 2.0 mi | 1 |
| Sep 1, 2021 | EF2 | 87 km | 11.4 mi | 0 |
| Apr 19, 2019 | EF2 | 81 km | 2.0 mi | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2018 | EF2 | 81 km | 5.5 mi | 0 |
| May 8, 2008 | EF2 | 37 km | 3.4 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF2 | 81 km | 8.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF2 | 19 km | 8.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF2 | 15 km | 13.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF2 | 56 km | 7.0 mi | 0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center (EF0+, 1950–2024, US only).
Wildfire History
20 wildfires (100+ acres) recorded within 100 km. Largest: PINNACLES (24,792 acres, 2000).
| Year | Name | Acres Burned | Distance |
| 2000 | PINNACLES | 24,792 | 65 km |
| 2024 | WATERFALL MOUNTAIN | 9,251 | 87 km |
| 2024 | WAITES RUN | 5,496 | 96 km |
| 2002 | FULTZ RUN | 4,638 | 87 km |
| 2012 | SHIPWRECK | 3,779 | 97 km |
| 2021 | UNNAMED | 3,667 | 97 km |
| 2014 | CUB RUN RX | 2,868 | 97 km |
| 2019 | UNNAMED | 2,460 | 85 km |
| 2012 | NEIGHBOR MTN FIRE | 1,986 | 69 km |
| 2011 | SMITH RUN FIRE | 1,908 | 54 km |
| 1999 | BOOTEN GAP | 1,652 | 80 km |
| 2020 | UNNAMED | 1,572 | 95 km |
| 1995 | SHENGAP | 1,385 | 87 km |
| 2006 | CARDINAL | 1,345 | 86 km |
| 2012 | POINT 2 | 1,126 | 70 km |
| 2024 | ROCKY BRANCH | 1,018 | 66 km |
| 2010 | SECOND MOUNTAIN | 970 | 100 km |
| 2011 | CHOPPING ROAD | 889 | 79 km |
| 2024 | SERENITY RIDGE FIRE | 877 | 81 km |
| 1999 | DOG SLAUGH | 838 | 84 km |
Source: NIFC/IRWIN Wildfire Records (100+ acres).
Monthly Weather
| Month | Avg Temperature | Precipitation | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 34°F (1°C) | 2.8 in | Coldest |
| February | 36°F (2°C) | 2.6 in | Driest |
| March | 45°F (7°C) | 3.2 in | |
| April | 55°F (13°C) | 3.1 in | |
| May | 64°F (18°C) | 3.9 in | Wettest |
| June | 72°F (22°C) | 3.5 in | |
| July | 75°F (24°C) | 3.4 in | Warmest |
| August | 75°F (24°C) | 3.6 in | |
| September | 68°F (20°C) | 3.5 in | |
| October | 57°F (14°C) | 3.2 in | |
| November | 47°F (8°C) | 3.3 in | |
| December | 38°F (3°C) | 3.0 in |
Nokesville has a seasonal temperature swing of 42°F / from 34°F in January to 75°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 39.1 inches, with May being the wettest month (3.9") and February the driest (2.6").