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Weather & Climate in South Run, VA
Temperature, precipitation, air quality, natural hazards, and monthly weather data.
South Run experiences four distinct seasons with an average annual temperature of 54°F (12°C). Winters average 33°F in January while summers reach 75°F in July. The area gets 293 sunny days per year, well above the U.S. average of 205 / making it one of the sunnier locations in the country. Annual precipitation totals 43.6 inches. The area receives 18.5 inches of snow annually, a moderate snowfall amount. Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 35. The city sits at an elevation of 302 feet.
Temperature
33°F Jan (0°C)
75°F Jul (24°C)
| Annual Average | 54.0°F |
| 0% below US avg | |
| January Average | 33°F (0°C) |
| July Average | 75°F (24°C) |
| Sunny Days | 293 days/yr |
Geography
| Elevation | 302 ft (92 m) |
| Area | 2.6 sq mi (6.7 km²) |
| Population Density | 2,654/sq mi |
| Coordinates | 38.7483°N, 77.2732°W |
| Timezone | America/New_York |
| County | Fairfax County County |
| Nearest Airport | Manassas Regional/Harry P Davis Field (MNZ) 13 miles away |
Precipitation & Snow
Air Quality
| AQI Median | 35.0 |
| Rating | Good |
Natural Hazard Risk
| Overall Risk | Relatively High |
| Risk Score | 94.7 / 100 |
| Social Vulnerability | 11.4 / 100 |
| Community Resilience | 59.4 / 100 |
Hazard Breakdown
| Tornado | Relatively Low |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate |
| Wildfire | Very Low |
| Flood | Relatively High |
| Hail | Relatively High |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High |
| Winter Weather | Very High |
| Lightning | Very High |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate |
| Drought | Relatively Low |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate |
| Landslide | Relatively Low |
| Coastal Flood | Relatively Low |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)
Earthquake History
43 earthquakes (M2.5+) recorded within 150 km since 1990. Strongest on record: M5.8.
| Aug 23, 2011 | 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M5.8 | 110 km | 6 km |
| Aug 25, 2011 | 8 km SW of Mineral, Virginia | M4.5 | 108 km | 7 km |
| Aug 24, 2011 | 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M4.2 | 110 km | 0 km |
| Mar 15, 1991 | 7 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia | M3.8 | 125 km | 16 km |
| May 5, 2003 | Virginia | M3.6 | 138 km | 13 km |
| Jul 16, 2010 | 5 km NNW of Barnesville, Maryland | M3.6 | 58 km | 7 km |
| Aug 24, 2011 | 16 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia | M3.4 | 118 km | 0 km |
| Sep 1, 2011 | 7 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M3.4 | 106 km | 3 km |
| Sep 22, 2001 | 5 km E of Pantops, Virginia | M3.2 | 127 km | 0 km |
| Jan 30, 2012 | 9 km SSE of Louisa, Virginia | M3.1 | 109 km | 3 km |
| Jan 17, 2016 | 3 km NE of Ranson, West Virginia | M3.0 | 80 km | 5 km |
| Oct 2, 2010 | 10 km NNW of Ashland, Virginia | M3.0 | 102 km | 19 km |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 9 km S of Louisa, Virginia | M3.0 | 109 km | 4 km |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 13 km S of Louisa, Virginia | M3.0 | 113 km | 9 km |
| Apr 24, 2009 | 1 km S of Franklintown, Pennsylvania | M2.9 | 148 km | 1 km |
| Sep 15, 2019 | 5 km ESE of East Berlin, Pennsylvania | M2.8 | 135 km | 5 km |
| Aug 23, 2011 | 9 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M2.8 | 108 km | 0 km |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 6 km SW of Mineral, Virginia | M2.8 | 106 km | 5 km |
| Apr 21, 1998 | 1 km NNW of Free Union, Virginia | M2.8 | 130 km | 2 km |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 km NNE of Wyndham, Virginia | M2.8 | 119 km | 0 km |
Source: USGS Earthquake Catalog (M2.5+, 1990–2025). Sorted by magnitude.
Hurricane History
5 hurricanes (Category 1+) recorded within 500 km since 1980. Strongest on record: Category 2.
| Year | Name | Category | Max Wind | Closest |
| 2011 | Irene | Category 1 | 75 mph | 211 km |
| 2003 | Isabel | Category 1 | 75 mph | 231 km |
| 1999 | Floyd | Category 1 | — | 240 km |
| 1986 | Charley | Category 1 | 81 mph | 235 km |
| 1985 | Gloria | Category 2 | 98 mph | 244 km |
Source: NOAA IBTrACS (Category 1+, 1980–2026).
Tornado History
470 tornadoes (EF0+) recorded within 100 km since 1950. Strongest on record: EF4. Total: 9 fatalities, 371 injuries.
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Fatalities |
| Apr 28, 2002 | EF4 | 24 km | 38.0 mi | 3 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | EF4 | 65 km | 10.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF3 | 52 km | 9.0 mi | 0 |
| Apr 28, 2002 | EF3 | 92 km | 18.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | EF3 | 32 km | 17.5 mi | 2 |
| Jul 19, 1996 | EF3 | 87 km | 2.2 mi | 0 |
| Oct 18, 1990 | EF3 | 79 km | 3.5 mi | 0 |
| Sep 5, 1979 | EF3 | 17 km | 17.9 mi | 1 |
| Jan 26, 1978 | EF3 | 28 km | 0.7 mi | 1 |
| Apr 1, 1973 | EF3 | 8 km | 9.8 mi | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1966 | EF3 | 98 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Jun 9, 1961 | EF3 | 76 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Sep 1, 2021 | EF2 | 60 km | 11.4 mi | 0 |
| Apr 19, 2019 | EF2 | 97 km | 2.0 mi | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2018 | EF2 | 67 km | 5.5 mi | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2017 | EF2 | 84 km | 2.4 mi | 0 |
| May 8, 2008 | EF2 | 48 km | 3.4 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF2 | 19 km | 4.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF2 | 46 km | 8.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF2 | 16 km | 15.0 mi | 0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center (EF0+, 1950–2024, US only).
Wildfire History
8 wildfires (100+ acres) recorded within 100 km. Largest: PINNACLES (24,792 acres, 2000).
| Year | Name | Acres Burned | Distance |
| 2000 | PINNACLES | 24,792 | 92 km |
| 2012 | NEIGHBOR MTN FIRE | 1,986 | 95 km |
| 2011 | SMITH RUN FIRE | 1,908 | 79 km |
| 2012 | POINT 2 | 1,126 | 94 km |
| 2024 | ROCKY BRANCH | 1,018 | 92 km |
| 2011 | CHOPPING ROAD | 889 | 97 km |
| 1999 | NCO | 816 | 24 km |
| 1984 | UNNAMED | 696 | 94 km |
Source: NIFC/IRWIN Wildfire Records (100+ acres).
Monthly Weather
| Month | Avg Temperature | Precipitation | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 33°F (0°C) | 3.0 in | Coldest |
| February | 37°F (3°C) | 2.7 in | Driest |
| March | 45°F (7°C) | 3.4 in | |
| April | 55°F (13°C) | 3.1 in | |
| May | 64°F (18°C) | 3.9 in | Wettest |
| June | 73°F (23°C) | 3.5 in | |
| July | 75°F (24°C) | 3.6 in | |
| August | 76°F (24°C) | 3.8 in | Warmest |
| September | 69°F (21°C) | 3.6 in | |
| October | 57°F (14°C) | 3.2 in | |
| November | 48°F (9°C) | 3.3 in | |
| December | 39°F (4°C) | 3.2 in |
South Run has a seasonal temperature swing of 43°F / from 33°F in January to 76°F in August. Total annual precipitation is 40.2 inches, with May being the wettest month (3.9") and February the driest (2.7").