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Weather & Climate in Tolstoy, SD
Temperature, precipitation, air quality, natural hazards, and monthly weather data.
Tolstoy has a cool climate with an average annual temperature of 44°F (7°C). Winters average 15°F in January while summers reach 72°F in July. The area gets 276 sunny days per year, well above the U.S. average of 205 / making it one of the sunnier locations in the country. Annual precipitation totals 20.2 inches (drier than the 38-inch national average). The area receives 38.7 inches of snow annually, a moderate snowfall amount. Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 35. The city sits at an elevation of 1,938 feet.
Temperature
15°F Jan (-9°C)
72°F Jul (22°C)
| Annual Average | 44.3°F |
| 18% below US avg | |
| January Average | 15°F (-9°C) |
| July Average | 72°F (22°C) |
| Sunny Days | 276 days/yr |
Geography
| Elevation | 1,938 ft (591 m) |
| Area | 0.2 sq mi (0.5 km²) |
| Population Density | 372/sq mi |
| Coordinates | 45.2081°N, 99.6140°W |
| Timezone | America/Chicago |
| County | Potter County County |
| Nearest Airport | Aberdeen Regional (ABR) 60 miles away |
Precipitation & Snow
Air Quality
| AQI Median | 35.0 |
| Rating | Good |
Natural Hazard Risk
| Overall Risk | Very Low |
| Risk Score | 10.0 / 100 |
| Social Vulnerability | 24.7 / 100 |
| Community Resilience | 59.2 / 100 |
Hazard Breakdown
| Tornado | Very Low |
| Earthquake | Very Low |
| Wildfire | Very Low |
| Flood | Very Low |
| Hail | Relatively Low |
| Strong Wind | Very Low |
| Heat Wave | Very Low |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low |
| Lightning | Very Low |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low |
| Drought | Relatively Low |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate |
| Landslide | Very Low |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)
Earthquake History
5 earthquakes (M2.5+) recorded within 150 km since 1990. Strongest on record: M3.7.
| May 30, 2024 | 38 km NNW of Pierre, South Dakota | M3.7 | 94 km | 15 km |
| Aug 9, 2011 | 2 km S of Fort Pierre, South Dakota | M3.3 | 115 km | 5 km |
| Jul 26, 2002 | 0 km WSW of Huron, South Dakota | M3.1 | 145 km | 5 km |
| Aug 15, 2017 | 8 km E of Agar, South Dakota | M3.0 | 49 km | 5 km |
| Jul 3, 1995 | 9 km SSW of Fort Thompson, South Dakota | M2.8 | 135 km | 5 km |
Source: USGS Earthquake Catalog (M2.5+, 1990–2025). Sorted by magnitude.
Tornado History
297 tornadoes (EF0+) recorded within 100 km since 1950. Strongest on record: EF4. Total: 6 fatalities, 30 injuries.
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Fatalities |
| May 22, 2010 | EF4 | 29 km | 5.7 mi | 0 |
| Aug 24, 2006 | EF3 | 52 km | 14.0 mi | 0 |
| Jun 23, 2002 | EF3 | 97 km | 10.0 mi | 0 |
| May 31, 1996 | EF3 | 93 km | 32.0 mi | 0 |
| Jun 7, 1993 | EF3 | 100 km | 5.0 mi | 0 |
| Jun 21, 1983 | EF3 | 95 km | 6.0 mi | 0 |
| Jul 1, 1973 | EF3 | 87 km | 0.3 mi | 1 |
| Jun 20, 1968 | EF3 | 46 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Jun 20, 1968 | EF3 | 59 km | 8.8 mi | 0 |
| Jul 31, 1966 | EF3 | 89 km | 26.4 mi | 2 |
| Jun 9, 1957 | EF3 | 43 km | 1.0 mi | 0 |
| Aug 28, 2024 | EF2 | 72 km | 5.4 mi | 0 |
| Aug 30, 2020 | EF2 | 74 km | 1.6 mi | 1 |
| Jul 4, 2020 | EF2 | 82 km | 2.7 mi | 0 |
| May 22, 2010 | EF2 | 60 km | 18.6 mi | 0 |
| Aug 24, 2006 | EF2 | 88 km | 5.0 mi | 0 |
| Jul 18, 2001 | EF2 | 6 km | 1.0 mi | 0 |
| Jun 30, 1992 | EF2 | 96 km | 0.3 mi | 0 |
| Sep 2, 1983 | EF2 | 45 km | 0.2 mi | 0 |
| Sep 2, 1983 | EF2 | 58 km | 0.2 mi | 0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center (EF0+, 1950–2024, US only).
Wildfire History
13 wildfires (100+ acres) recorded within 100 km. Largest: LAPLANTE (14,777 acres, 2002).
| Year | Name | Acres Burned | Distance |
| 2002 | LAPLANTE | 14,777 | 82 km |
| 1991 | UNNAMED | 14,487 | 92 km |
| 2022 | ROHRBACH | 2,887 | 18 km |
| 2005 | LITTLE BEND | 2,789 | 95 km |
| 2006 | 1804 | 2,778 | 68 km |
| 2011 | MOUND CITY | 2,755 | 76 km |
| 2023 | LITTLE BEND RX | 2,574 | 96 km |
| 2006 | FOUR BEAR | 2,179 | 61 km |
| 2003 | JOEL BERTSCH 2 | 1,460 | 79 km |
| 1991 | UNNAMED | 1,438 | 81 km |
| 2004 | ALLEN STUECKLE | 1,330 | 73 km |
| 2005 | N HYDE | 1,204 | 57 km |
| 2021 | FUZZY | 1,075 | 66 km |
Source: NIFC/IRWIN Wildfire Records (100+ acres).
Monthly Weather
| Month | Avg Temperature | Precipitation | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 15°F (-9°C) | 0.4 in | Coldest, Driest |
| February | 18°F (-8°C) | 0.4 in | |
| March | 30°F (-1°C) | 1.1 in | |
| April | 44°F (7°C) | 1.9 in | |
| May | 57°F (14°C) | 2.5 in | |
| June | 66°F (19°C) | 3.4 in | Wettest |
| July | 72°F (22°C) | 2.4 in | Warmest |
| August | 70°F (21°C) | 2.2 in | |
| September | 60°F (15°C) | 1.4 in | |
| October | 46°F (8°C) | 1.2 in | |
| November | 29°F (-2°C) | 0.6 in | |
| December | 16°F (-9°C) | 0.4 in |
Tolstoy has a seasonal temperature swing of 57°F / from 15°F in January to 72°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 17.8 inches, with June being the wettest month (3.4") and January the driest (0.4").