Weather & Climate in Tumacacori-Carmen, AZ
Temperature, precipitation, air quality, natural hazards, and monthly weather data.
Tumacacori-Carmen enjoys a temperate climate with an average annual temperature of 63°F (17°C). Winters average 48°F in January while summers reach 80°F in July. Annual precipitation totals 15.9 inches (drier than the 38-inch national average). Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 43. 59% of days have good air quality. The city sits at an elevation of 3,253 feet.
Temperature
48°F Jan (9°C)
80°F Jul (27°C)
| Annual Average | 63.0°F |
| 17% above US avg | |
| January Average | 48°F (9°C) |
| July Average | 80°F (27°C) |
Geography
| Elevation | 3,253 ft (992 m) |
| Area | 2.0 sq mi (5.1 km²) |
| Population Density | 85/sq mi |
| Coordinates | 31.5710°N, 111.0477°W |
| Timezone | America/Phoenix |
| County | Santa Cruz County County |
| Nearest Airport | Nogales International (OLS) 16 miles away |
Precipitation & Snow
Air Quality
| AQI Median | 43.0 |
| Rating | Good |
| Good Days % | 59.0% |
| Unhealthy Days | 9 |
Natural Hazard Risk
| Overall Risk | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk Score | 88.3 / 100 |
| Social Vulnerability | 92.3 / 100 |
| Community Resilience | 2.3 / 100 |
Hazard Breakdown
| Tornado | Very Low |
| Hurricane | Very Low |
| Earthquake | Very Low |
| Wildfire | Relatively High |
| Flood | Relatively Moderate |
| Hail | Very Low |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High |
| Winter Weather | Very Low |
| Lightning | Relatively High |
| Drought | Relatively Low |
| Cold Wave | No Rating |
| Landslide | Relatively Low |
| Avalanche | Very Low |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)
Earthquake History
3 earthquakes (M2.5+) recorded within 150 km since 1990. Strongest on record: M4.5.
| Oct 16, 1999 | 10 km ESE of Imuris, Mexico | M4.5 | 96 km | 5 km |
| Sep 28, 2023 | 21 km E of Tanque Verde, Arizona | M3.1 | 88 km | 12 km |
| Aug 9, 2025 | 14 km ENE of Willow Canyon, Arizona | M2.6 | 107 km | 12 km |
Source: USGS Earthquake Catalog (M2.5+, 1990-2025). Sorted by magnitude.
Tornado History
32 tornadoes (EF0+) recorded within 100 km since 1950. Strongest on record: EF2. Total: 3 fatalities, 55 injuries.
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Fatalities |
| Jul 28, 1994 | EF2 | 90 km | 2.0 mi | 0 |
| Aug 27, 1964 | EF2 | 70 km | 0.1 mi | 2 |
| Jul 2, 2024 | EF1 | 66 km | 3.3 mi | 0 |
| Jul 6, 1992 | EF1 | 74 km | 2.8 mi | 0 |
| Aug 24, 1991 | EF1 | 97 km | 1.0 mi | 0 |
| Jul 16, 1984 | EF1 | 69 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Jul 16, 1984 | EF1 | 54 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Dec 23, 1975 | EF1 | 64 km | 2.0 mi | 0 |
| Jun 23, 1974 | EF1 | 61 km | 1.0 mi | 1 |
| Sep 1, 1971 | EF1 | 88 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Jul 16, 1971 | EF1 | 71 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Aug 16, 1969 | EF1 | 41 km | 1.0 mi | 0 |
| Jul 27, 1961 | EF1 | 61 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Aug 13, 2023 | EF0 | 88 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Aug 25, 2022 | EF0 | 63 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Aug 10, 2019 | EF0 | 66 km | 0.2 mi | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2017 | EF0 | 85 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Jul 14, 2017 | EF0 | 99 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Sep 22, 2015 | EF0 | 92 km | 0.6 mi | 0 |
| Aug 29, 2015 | EF0 | 61 km | 0.4 mi | 0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center (EF0+, 1950-2024, US only).
Wildfire History
20 wildfires (100+ acres) recorded within 100 km. Largest: ASPEN (79,707 acres, 2003).
| Year | Name | Acres Burned | Distance |
| 2003 | ASPEN | 79,707 | 99 km |
| 2011 | MURPHY COMPLEX | 64,407 | 14 km |
| 2017 | SAWMILL | 47,357 | 44 km |
| 2002 | RYAN | 36,922 | 51 km |
| 2022 | CONTRERAS | 31,297 | 64 km |
| 2011 | MONUMENT | 30,219 | 79 km |
| 2017 | BURRO | 26,852 | 99 km |
| 2009 | ELK HORN | 22,745 | 53 km |
| 2002 | WALKER | 17,438 | 25 km |
| 2022 | TONTO CANYON | 16,989 | 24 km |
| 2005 | FLORIDA | 16,362 | 27 km |
| 2011 | BULL | 16,339 | 26 km |
| 1988 | PEAK | 16,078 | 79 km |
| 2016 | BROWN | 15,681 | 54 km |
| 1994 | RINCON | 15,472 | 85 km |
| 2020 | ENCINOS | 14,145 | 56 km |
| 2022 | SAN RAFAEL | 12,203 | 46 km |
| 2012 | CAMPINI | 11,893 | 72 km |
| 2023 | BEEHIVE | 11,087 | 11 km |
| 2013 | SOLDIER BASIN | 11,052 | 30 km |
Source: NIFC/IRWIN Wildfire Records (100+ acres).
Monthly Weather
| Month | Avg Temperature | Precipitation | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 48°F (9°C) | 1.2 in | |
| February | 50°F (10°C) | 1.1 in | |
| March | 55°F (13°C) | 0.8 in | |
| April | 60°F (16°C) | 0.3 in | |
| May | 68°F (20°C) | 0.2 in | Driest |
| June | 77°F (25°C) | 0.5 in | |
| July | 80°F (27°C) | 3.8 in | Warmest, Wettest |
| August | 79°F (26°C) | 3.4 in | |
| September | 74°F (23°C) | 1.8 in | |
| October | 65°F (18°C) | 1.1 in | |
| November | 55°F (13°C) | 0.9 in | |
| December | 47°F (8°C) | 1.0 in | Coldest |
Tumacacori-Carmen has a seasonal temperature swing of 33°F / from 47°F in December to 80°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 16.0 inches, with July being the wettest month (3.8") and May the driest (0.2").