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Weather & Climate in Uncertain, TX
Temperature, precipitation, air quality, natural hazards, and monthly weather data.
Uncertain enjoys a temperate climate with an average annual temperature of 65°F (18°C). Winters average 46°F in January while summers reach 83°F in July. The area gets 308 sunny days per year, well above the U.S. average of 205 / making it one of the sunnier locations in the country. Annual precipitation totals 49.7 inches (wetter than the 38-inch national average). The area receives 1.3 inches of snow annually. Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 42. The city sits at an elevation of 186 feet.
Temperature
46°F Jan (8°C)
83°F Jul (28°C)
| Annual Average | 64.7°F |
| 20% above US avg | |
| January Average | 46°F (8°C) |
| July Average | 83°F (28°C) |
| Sunny Days | 308 days/yr |
Geography
| Elevation | 186 ft (57 m) |
| Area | 0.5 sq mi (1.3 km²) |
| Population Density | 174/sq mi |
| Coordinates | 32.7006°N, 94.1333°W |
| Timezone | America/Chicago |
| County | Marion County County |
| Nearest Airport | Shreveport Regional (SHV) 25 miles away |
Precipitation & Snow
Air Quality
| AQI Median | 42.0 |
| Rating | Good |
Natural Hazard Risk
| Overall Risk | Very Low |
| Risk Score | 29.2 / 100 |
| Social Vulnerability | 97.4 / 100 |
| Community Resilience | 20.1 / 100 |
Hazard Breakdown
| Tornado | Relatively Low |
| Hurricane | Very Low |
| Earthquake | Very Low |
| Wildfire | Very Low |
| Flood | Very Low |
| Hail | Relatively Low |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low |
| Lightning | Relatively Low |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low |
| Landslide | Very Low |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)
Earthquake History
39 earthquakes (M2.5+) recorded within 150 km since 1990. Strongest on record: M4.8.
| May 17, 2012 | 3 km NE of Timpson, Texas | M4.8 | 89 km | 5 km |
| Sep 2, 2013 | 3 km WNW of Timpson, Texas | M4.3 | 92 km | 5 km |
| Sep 2, 2013 | 14 km WNW of Timpson, Texas | M4.2 | 90 km | 5 km |
| Jan 25, 2013 | 11 km SE of Timpson, Texas | M4.1 | 97 km | 5 km |
| May 10, 2012 | 9 km NW of Timpson, Texas | M3.9 | 88 km | 7 km |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 4 km SSW of Hall Summit, Louisiana | M3.6 | 98 km | 9 km |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 0 km WSW of Mooringsport, Louisiana | M3.5 | 15 km | 5 km |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 13 km NNE of Wells, Texas | M3.5 | 142 km | 7 km |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 7 km SSW of San Augustine, Texas | M3.3 | 137 km | 5 km |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 5 km WSW of Huxley, Texas | M3.2 | 107 km | 9 km |
| Jun 10, 1994 | 4 km E of Junction City, Arkansas | M3.2 | 141 km | 5 km |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 8 km WNW of Blanchard, Louisiana | M3.2 | 18 km | 5 km |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 4 km ESE of Mooringsport, Louisiana | M3.0 | 21 km | 9 km |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 5 km WSW of Chireno, Texas | M3.0 | 139 km | 8 km |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 8 km W of Huxley, Texas | M3.0 | 106 km | 7 km |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 7 km W of Blanchard, Louisiana | M3.0 | 20 km | 5 km |
| Mar 3, 2001 | 2 km SSE of El Dorado, Arkansas | M3.0 | 148 km | 5 km |
| May 31, 2013 | 7 km SE of Timpson, Texas | M2.9 | 95 km | 5 km |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 km S of Edgefield, Louisiana | M2.8 | 105 km | 5 km |
| Jan 29, 2013 | 4 km S of Timpson, Texas | M2.8 | 96 km | 5 km |
Source: USGS Earthquake Catalog (M2.5+, 1990–2025). Sorted by magnitude.
Hurricane History
4 hurricanes (Category 1+) recorded within 500 km since 1980. Strongest on record: Category 3.
| Year | Name | Category | Max Wind | Closest |
| 2020 | Laura | Category 3 | 98 mph | 125 km |
| 2008 | Ike | Category 2 | 98 mph | 219 km |
| 2007 | Humberto | Category 1 | 75 mph | 272 km |
| 2005 | Rita | Category 1 | 75 mph | 245 km |
Source: NOAA IBTrACS (Category 1+, 1980–2026).
Tornado History
738 tornadoes (EF0+) recorded within 100 km since 1950. Strongest on record: EF4. Total: 52 fatalities, 866 injuries.
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Fatalities |
| Apr 3, 1999 | EF4 | 34 km | 19.3 mi | 7 |
| Dec 3, 1978 | EF4 | 42 km | 6.2 mi | 2 |
| Mar 12, 1971 | EF4 | 93 km | 5.1 mi | 1 |
| Feb 12, 1950 | EF4 | 82 km | 82.6 mi | 18 |
| Nov 4, 2022 | EF3 | 73 km | 16.9 mi | 1 |
| Nov 4, 2022 | EF3 | 79 km | 15.7 mi | 0 |
| Jan 20, 2010 | EF3 | 24 km | 15.6 mi | 0 |
| Apr 9, 2009 | EF3 | 39 km | 9.9 mi | 0 |
| Apr 23, 2000 | EF3 | 31 km | 32.5 mi | 0 |
| Apr 23, 2000 | EF3 | 45 km | 16.0 mi | 0 |
| Apr 3, 1999 | EF3 | 84 km | 5.4 mi | 0 |
| Apr 3, 1999 | EF3 | 99 km | 8.5 mi | 0 |
| Jun 7, 1989 | EF3 | 80 km | 6.0 mi | 0 |
| Apr 1, 1988 | EF3 | 76 km | 13.0 mi | 0 |
| Nov 15, 1987 | EF3 | 93 km | 48.0 mi | 1 |
| Nov 15, 1987 | EF3 | 55 km | 12.2 mi | 0 |
| Apr 23, 1985 | EF3 | 43 km | 13.0 mi | 0 |
| May 2, 1984 | EF3 | 48 km | 61.0 mi | 0 |
| Apr 25, 1982 | EF3 | 71 km | 23.0 mi | 0 |
| Apr 25, 1982 | EF3 | 54 km | 7.0 mi | 0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center (EF0+, 1950–2024, US only).
Wildfire History
20 wildfires (100+ acres) recorded within 100 km. Largest: NORTHEAST TEXAS FIRE COMPLEX (41,645 acres, 2011).
| Year | Name | Acres Burned | Distance |
| 2011 | NORTHEAST TEXAS FIRE COMPLEX | 41,645 | 36 km |
| 2011 | OLD MAGNOLIA | 4,881 | 78 km |
| 2022 | TXCLR-FY22-RX-W | 3,288 | 3 km |
| 2011 | DIANA | 2,863 | 63 km |
| 2011 | 592 | 2,278 | 15 km |
| 2011 | PETERS CHAPEL | 2,072 | 13 km |
| 2021 | UNNAMED | 1,756 | 83 km |
| 1999 | UNNAMED | 1,699 | 99 km |
| 2014 | UNNAMED | 1,614 | 90 km |
| 2011 | MARSHALL | 1,583 | 25 km |
| 2018 | C-25 26 27 | 1,565 | 84 km |
| 2011 | RELEASE | 1,398 | 23 km |
| 2004 | UNNAMED | 1,358 | 64 km |
| 1998 | UNNAMED | 1,317 | 17 km |
| 2017 | UNNAMED | 1,199 | 81 km |
| 2022 | C-24 28 | 1,161 | 78 km |
| 2011 | UNNAMED | 1,046 | 17 km |
| 2018 | C-28 | 882 | 80 km |
| 2004 | BUSSEY | 795 | 84 km |
| 2021 | CANEY LAKES | 756 | 85 km |
Source: NIFC/IRWIN Wildfire Records (100+ acres).
Monthly Weather
| Month | Avg Temperature | Precipitation | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 46°F (8°C) | 4.0 in | Coldest |
| February | 49°F (9°C) | 4.0 in | |
| March | 56°F (13°C) | 4.3 in | |
| April | 64°F (18°C) | 4.4 in | |
| May | 71°F (22°C) | 4.7 in | Wettest |
| June | 78°F (26°C) | 4.6 in | |
| July | 83°F (28°C) | 3.2 in | Warmest |
| August | 81°F (27°C) | 2.8 in | Driest |
| September | 75°F (24°C) | 3.3 in | |
| October | 65°F (18°C) | 4.2 in | |
| November | 55°F (13°C) | 4.6 in | |
| December | 47°F (8°C) | 4.5 in |
Uncertain has a seasonal temperature swing of 38°F / from 46°F in January to 83°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 48.6 inches, with May being the wettest month (4.7") and August the driest (2.8").