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Weather & Climate in Bull Run Mountain Estates, VA
Temperature, precipitation, air quality, natural hazards, and monthly weather data.
Bull Run Mountain Estates experiences four distinct seasons with an average annual temperature of 55°F (13°C). Winters average 34°F in January while summers reach 75°F in July. The area gets 297 sunny days per year, well above the U.S. average of 205 / making it one of the sunnier locations in the country. Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 35. The city sits at an elevation of 951 feet.
Temperature
34°F Jan (1°C)
75°F Jul (24°C)
| Annual Average | 54.9°F |
| 2% above US avg | |
| January Average | 34°F (1°C) |
| July Average | 75°F (24°C) |
| Sunny Days | 297 days/yr |
Geography
| Elevation | 951 ft (290 m) |
| Area | 1.8 sq mi (4.6 km²) |
| Population Density | 899/sq mi |
| Coordinates | 38.9092°N, 77.6667°W |
| Timezone | America/New_York |
| County | Fauquier County County |
| Nearest Airport | Washington Dulles International (IAD) 9 miles away |
Precipitation & Snow
Air Quality
| AQI Median | 35.0 |
| Rating | Good |
Natural Hazard Risk
| Overall Risk | Relatively Low |
| Risk Score | 47.7 / 100 |
| Social Vulnerability | 10.6 / 100 |
| Community Resilience | 67.8 / 100 |
Hazard Breakdown
| Tornado | Very Low |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low |
| Wildfire | Very Low |
| Flood | Relatively Low |
| Hail | Relatively Low |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate |
| Ice Storm | Very Low |
| Drought | Relatively Low |
| Cold Wave | Very Low |
| Landslide | Very Low |
| Avalanche | Very Low |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)
Earthquake History
45 earthquakes (M2.5+) recorded within 150 km since 1990. Strongest on record: M5.8.
| Aug 23, 2011 | 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M5.8 | 114 km | 6 km |
| Aug 25, 2011 | 8 km SW of Mineral, Virginia | M4.5 | 110 km | 7 km |
| Aug 24, 2011 | 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M4.2 | 113 km | 0 km |
| Mar 15, 1991 | 7 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia | M3.8 | 131 km | 16 km |
| May 5, 2003 | Virginia | M3.6 | 145 km | 13 km |
| Jul 16, 2010 | 5 km NNW of Barnesville, Maryland | M3.6 | 45 km | 7 km |
| Aug 24, 2011 | 16 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia | M3.4 | 123 km | 0 km |
| Sep 1, 2011 | 7 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M3.4 | 109 km | 3 km |
| Sep 22, 2001 | 5 km E of Pantops, Virginia | M3.2 | 117 km | 0 km |
| Jan 30, 2012 | 9 km SSE of Louisa, Virginia | M3.1 | 111 km | 3 km |
| Jun 3, 2010 | 4 km ENE of Franklintown, Pennsylvania | M3.1 | 144 km | 2 km |
| Jan 17, 2016 | 3 km NE of Ranson, West Virginia | M3.0 | 48 km | 5 km |
| Oct 2, 2010 | 10 km NNW of Ashland, Virginia | M3.0 | 118 km | 19 km |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 9 km S of Louisa, Virginia | M3.0 | 111 km | 4 km |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 13 km S of Louisa, Virginia | M3.0 | 115 km | 9 km |
| Apr 24, 2009 | 1 km S of Franklintown, Pennsylvania | M2.9 | 140 km | 1 km |
| Sep 15, 2019 | 5 km ESE of East Berlin, Pennsylvania | M2.8 | 130 km | 5 km |
| Aug 23, 2011 | 9 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia | M2.8 | 111 km | 0 km |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 6 km SW of Mineral, Virginia | M2.8 | 108 km | 5 km |
| Apr 21, 1998 | 1 km NNW of Free Union, Virginia | M2.8 | 114 km | 2 km |
Source: USGS Earthquake Catalog (M2.5+, 1990–2025). Sorted by magnitude.
Hurricane History
5 hurricanes (Category 1+) recorded within 500 km since 1980. Strongest on record: Category 2.
| Year | Name | Category | Max Wind | Closest |
| 2011 | Irene | Category 1 | 75 mph | 249 km |
| 2003 | Isabel | Category 1 | 75 mph | 246 km |
| 1999 | Floyd | Category 1 | — | 272 km |
| 1986 | Charley | Category 1 | 81 mph | 273 km |
| 1985 | Gloria | Category 2 | 98 mph | 281 km |
Source: NOAA IBTrACS (Category 1+, 1980–2026).
Tornado History
433 tornadoes (EF0+) recorded within 100 km since 1950. Strongest on record: EF4. Total: 8 fatalities, 375 injuries.
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Fatalities |
| Apr 28, 2002 | EF4 | 58 km | 38.0 mi | 3 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | EF4 | 47 km | 10.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF3 | 45 km | 9.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | EF3 | 60 km | 17.5 mi | 2 |
| Jul 19, 1996 | EF3 | 88 km | 2.2 mi | 0 |
| Oct 18, 1990 | EF3 | 73 km | 3.5 mi | 0 |
| May 22, 1983 | EF3 | 95 km | 2.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 5, 1979 | EF3 | 53 km | 17.9 mi | 1 |
| Jan 26, 1978 | EF3 | 56 km | 0.7 mi | 1 |
| Mar 21, 1976 | EF3 | 86 km | 5.6 mi | 0 |
| Apr 1, 1973 | EF3 | 32 km | 9.8 mi | 0 |
| Jun 9, 1961 | EF3 | 96 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Sep 30, 1959 | EF3 | 95 km | 2.0 mi | 1 |
| Sep 1, 2021 | EF2 | 93 km | 11.4 mi | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2018 | EF2 | 65 km | 5.5 mi | 0 |
| May 8, 2008 | EF2 | 62 km | 3.4 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF2 | 52 km | 5.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF2 | 23 km | 15.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF2 | 74 km | 7.0 mi | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | EF2 | 89 km | 8.0 mi | 0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center (EF0+, 1950–2024, US only).
Wildfire History
20 wildfires (100+ acres) recorded within 100 km. Largest: PINNACLES (24,792 acres, 2000).
| Year | Name | Acres Burned | Distance |
| 2000 | PINNACLES | 24,792 | 66 km |
| 2024 | WATERFALL MOUNTAIN | 9,251 | 83 km |
| 2024 | WAITES RUN | 5,496 | 82 km |
| 2002 | FULTZ RUN | 4,638 | 88 km |
| 2012 | SHIPWRECK | 3,779 | 97 km |
| 2021 | UNNAMED | 3,667 | 97 km |
| 2014 | CUB RUN RX | 2,868 | 97 km |
| 2019 | UNNAMED | 2,460 | 80 km |
| 2012 | NEIGHBOR MTN FIRE | 1,986 | 66 km |
| 2011 | SMITH RUN FIRE | 1,908 | 46 km |
| 1999 | BOOTEN GAP | 1,652 | 84 km |
| 2020 | UNNAMED | 1,572 | 83 km |
| 1995 | SHENGAP | 1,385 | 88 km |
| 2006 | CARDINAL | 1,345 | 82 km |
| 2012 | POINT 2 | 1,126 | 59 km |
| 2024 | ROCKY BRANCH | 1,018 | 62 km |
| 2024 | SERENITY RIDGE FIRE | 877 | 76 km |
| 1999 | DOG SLAUGH | 838 | 85 km |
| 1999 | NCO | 816 | 47 km |
| 2019 | KENNEDY PEAK | 769 | 71 km |
Source: NIFC/IRWIN Wildfire Records (100+ acres).
Monthly Weather
| Month | Avg Temperature | Precipitation | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 34°F (1°C) | 2.9 in | Coldest |
| February | 35°F (2°C) | 2.6 in | Driest |
| March | 43°F (6°C) | 3.3 in | |
| April | 53°F (12°C) | 3.3 in | |
| May | 62°F (17°C) | 4.1 in | Wettest |
| June | 71°F (21°C) | 3.8 in | |
| July | 75°F (24°C) | 3.7 in | Warmest |
| August | 74°F (23°C) | 3.7 in | |
| September | 67°F (19°C) | 3.7 in | |
| October | 55°F (13°C) | 3.4 in | |
| November | 46°F (8°C) | 3.5 in | |
| December | 37°F (3°C) | 3.0 in |
Bull Run Mountain Estates has a seasonal temperature swing of 42°F / from 34°F in January to 75°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 40.8 inches, with May being the wettest month (4.1") and February the driest (2.6").