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Weather & Climate in Chance, MD
Temperature, precipitation, air quality, natural hazards, and monthly weather data.
Chance enjoys a temperate climate with an average annual temperature of 58°F (15°C). Winters average 38°F in January while summers reach 79°F in July. The area gets 297 sunny days per year, well above the U.S. average of 205 / making it one of the sunnier locations in the country. Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 41. The city sits at an elevation of 6 feet.
Temperature
38°F Jan (3°C)
79°F Jul (26°C)
| Annual Average | 58.3°F |
| 8% above US avg | |
| January Average | 38°F (3°C) |
| July Average | 79°F (26°C) |
| Sunny Days | 297 days/yr |
Geography
| Elevation | 6 ft (2 m) |
| Area | 1.7 sq mi (4.3 km²) |
| Population Density | 131/sq mi |
| Coordinates | 38.1780°N, 75.9388°W |
| Timezone | America/New_York |
| County | Somerset County County |
| Nearest Airport | Cambridge-Dorchester Regional (CGE) 25 miles away |
Precipitation & Snow
Air Quality
| AQI Median | 41.0 |
| Rating | Good |
Natural Hazard Risk
| Overall Risk | Relatively Low |
| Risk Score | 59.6 / 100 |
| Social Vulnerability | 72.1 / 100 |
| Community Resilience | 91.9 / 100 |
Hazard Breakdown
| Tornado | Very Low |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate |
| Earthquake | Very Low |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low |
| Flood | Very Low |
| Hail | Very Low |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low |
| Heat Wave | Very Low |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low |
| Lightning | Very Low |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low |
| Landslide | Very Low |
| Coastal Flood | Relatively High |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)
Earthquake History
9 earthquakes (M2.5+) recorded within 150 km since 1990. Strongest on record: M3.0.
| Oct 2, 2010 | 10 km NNW of Ashland, Virginia | M3.0 | 143 km | 19 km |
| Aug 3, 1995 | 13 km N of Williamsburg, Virginia | M2.9 | 110 km | 1 km |
| Mar 15, 1993 | 5 km W of Columbia, Maryland | M2.7 | 144 km | 5 km |
| Oct 28, 1994 | 1 km E of Mount Vernon, Maryland | M2.7 | 137 km | — |
| Jun 25, 2021 | 2 km SE of Woodlawn, Maryland | M2.6 | 142 km | 3 km |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 29 km E of Greenbackville, Virginia | M2.6 | 79 km | 11 km |
| Apr 29, 2000 | 3 km N of Glen Allen, Virginia | M2.5 | 147 km | 5 km |
| Sep 29, 1997 | Virginia | M2.5 | 149 km | 3 km |
| Mar 10, 1993 | 3 km WSW of Columbia, Maryland | M2.5 | 143 km | 5 km |
Source: USGS Earthquake Catalog (M2.5+, 1990–2025). Sorted by magnitude.
Hurricane History
11 hurricanes (Category 1+) recorded within 500 km since 1980. Strongest on record: Category 3.
| Year | Name | Category | Max Wind | Closest |
| 2019 | Dorian | Category 2 | 98 mph | 291 km |
| 2014 | Arthur | Category 2 | 98 mph | 205 km |
| 2012 | Sandy | Category 1 | 92 mph | 240 km |
| 2011 | Irene | Category 1 | 75 mph | 83 km |
| 2003 | Isabel | Category 1 | 75 mph | 226 km |
| 1999 | Floyd | Category 1 | 81 mph | 154 km |
| 1998 | Bonnie | Category 1 | 86 mph | 219 km |
| 1993 | Emily | Category 3 | 115 mph | 222 km |
| 1991 | Bob | Category 3 | 115 mph | 198 km |
| 1986 | Charley | Category 1 | 81 mph | 108 km |
| 1985 | Gloria | Category 2 | 104 mph | 128 km |
Source: NOAA IBTrACS (Category 1+, 1980–2026).
Tornado History
244 tornadoes (EF0+) recorded within 100 km since 1950. Strongest on record: EF3. Total: 2 fatalities, 75 injuries.
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Fatalities |
| Apr 1, 2023 | EF3 | 69 km | 14.3 mi | 1 |
| Apr 28, 2002 | EF3 | 41 km | 18.0 mi | 0 |
| Aug 6, 1993 | EF3 | 87 km | 2.9 mi | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1966 | EF3 | 75 km | 0.1 mi | 0 |
| Sep 1, 2021 | EF2 | 94 km | 11.4 mi | 0 |
| May 3, 2021 | EF2 | 61 km | 4.4 mi | 0 |
| Aug 4, 2020 | EF2 | 48 km | 3.8 mi | 0 |
| Aug 4, 2020 | EF2 | 70 km | 15.6 mi | 0 |
| Aug 4, 2020 | EF2 | 34 km | 1.3 mi | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2019 | EF2 | 53 km | 6.2 mi | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2017 | EF2 | 94 km | 2.4 mi | 0 |
| Apr 16, 2011 | EF2 | 80 km | 2.8 mi | 0 |
| Apr 28, 2002 | EF2 | 99 km | 3.0 mi | 0 |
| May 18, 1995 | EF2 | 77 km | 10.0 mi | 0 |
| Jul 27, 1994 | EF2 | 79 km | 0.8 mi | 0 |
| Jul 27, 1994 | EF2 | 96 km | 0.8 mi | 0 |
| May 2, 1989 | EF2 | 52 km | 5.0 mi | 0 |
| Jul 18, 1984 | EF2 | 76 km | 1.5 mi | 0 |
| Oct 13, 1983 | EF2 | 59 km | 4.0 mi | 0 |
| Aug 31, 1983 | EF2 | 76 km | 0.2 mi | 0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center (EF0+, 1950–2024, US only).
Wildfire History
20 wildfires (100+ acres) recorded within 100 km. Largest: BESTPITCH (7,743 acres, 2017).
| Year | Name | Acres Burned | Distance |
| 2017 | BESTPITCH | 7,743 | 24 km |
| 2004 | RETAINING ECOLOGICAL HEALTH | 5,678 | 26 km |
| 2014 | BLACKWATER MARSH WUI BURNS FY14 | 5,433 | 26 km |
| 2005 | MARSH RX-FWS | 4,380 | 27 km |
| 2007 | GUINEA MARSH | 4,173 | 22 km |
| 2009 | DOCTORS CREEK | 3,686 | 22 km |
| 1999 | FB R O C I | 3,525 | 23 km |
| 2019 | MDBWR-FY19-RX-MDWHS SUPPORT | 3,197 | 25 km |
| 2011 | COMPARTMENT J | 2,775 | 25 km |
| 2005 | ISLAND CREEK | 2,729 | 21 km |
| 2004 | UNNAMED | 2,156 | 21 km |
| 1992 | UNNAMED | 2,038 | 25 km |
| 2005 | VEGETATION RESEARCH | 1,926 | 26 km |
| 2011 | THOROFARE | 1,850 | 26 km |
| 1987 | UNNAMED | 1,692 | 28 km |
| 2004 | ROBBINS FIRE | 1,612 | 23 km |
| 1988 | SLAU BCH 2 | 1,578 | 97 km |
| 2004 | BLACKWATER HAZARD FUEL REDUCTION | 1,518 | 33 km |
| 2009 | BECKERS ISLAND | 1,398 | 23 km |
| 2022 | ELLIOTTS ISLAND | 1,324 | 22 km |
Source: NIFC/IRWIN Wildfire Records (100+ acres).
Monthly Weather
| Month | Avg Temperature | Precipitation | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 38°F (3°C) | 3.6 in | Coldest |
| February | 38°F (3°C) | 3.1 in | Driest |
| March | 45°F (7°C) | 4.2 in | Wettest |
| April | 54°F (12°C) | 3.1 in | |
| May | 64°F (18°C) | 3.6 in | |
| June | 72°F (22°C) | 3.2 in | |
| July | 79°F (26°C) | 4.2 in | Warmest |
| August | 76°F (24°C) | 4.2 in | |
| September | 70°F (21°C) | 3.5 in | |
| October | 59°F (15°C) | 3.1 in | |
| November | 49°F (10°C) | 3.1 in | |
| December | 41°F (5°C) | 3.2 in |
Chance has a seasonal temperature swing of 42°F / from 38°F in January to 79°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 42.0 inches, with March being the wettest month (4.2") and February the driest (3.1").