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Weather & Climate in Chance, OK
Temperature, precipitation, air quality, natural hazards, and monthly weather data.
Chance enjoys a temperate climate with an average annual temperature of 60°F (16°C). Winters average 39°F in January while summers reach 81°F in July. The area gets 318 sunny days per year, well above the U.S. average of 205 / making it one of the sunnier locations in the country. Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 45. The city sits at an elevation of 1,185 feet.
Temperature
39°F Jan (4°C)
81°F Jul (27°C)
| Annual Average | 60.4°F |
| 12% above US avg | |
| January Average | 39°F (4°C) |
| July Average | 81°F (27°C) |
| Sunny Days | 318 days/yr |
Geography
| Elevation | 1,185 ft (361 m) |
| Area | 6.3 sq mi (16.4 km²) |
| Population Density | 46/sq mi |
| Coordinates | 36.0675°N, 94.6463°W |
| Timezone | America/Chicago |
| County | Delaware County County |
| Nearest Airport | Northwest Arkansas Ntl (XNA) 24 miles away |
Precipitation & Snow
Air Quality
| AQI Median | 45.0 |
| Rating | Good |
Natural Hazard Risk
| Overall Risk | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk Score | 82.7 / 100 |
| Social Vulnerability | 90.9 / 100 |
| Community Resilience | 5.8 / 100 |
Hazard Breakdown
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate |
| Hurricane | Very Low |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low |
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate |
| Flood | Relatively Moderate |
| Hail | Relatively Low |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate |
| Ice Storm | Very High |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate |
| Landslide | Relatively Low |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)
Earthquake History
63 earthquakes (M2.5+) recorded within 150 km since 1990. Strongest on record: M3.7.
| Aug 24, 2021 | 1 km S of Quinton, Oklahoma | M3.7 | 125 km | 7 km |
| Aug 18, 2019 | 1 km ENE of Quinton, Oklahoma | M3.7 | 123 km | 6 km |
| Aug 22, 2021 | 3 km ESE of Quinton, Oklahoma | M3.4 | 123 km | 7 km |
| Jul 22, 2021 | 2 km E of Quinton, Oklahoma | M3.3 | 122 km | 8 km |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 2 km SSW of Quinton, Oklahoma | M3.2 | 127 km | 6 km |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 3 km SSW of Quinton, Oklahoma | M3.2 | 127 km | 6 km |
| Aug 12, 2019 | 1 km NE of Quinton, Oklahoma | M3.2 | 122 km | 5 km |
| Jun 3, 2022 | 10 km W of Quinton, Oklahoma | M3.2 | 129 km | 13 km |
| Mar 14, 2022 | 12 km E of Crowder, Oklahoma | M3.1 | 134 km | 8 km |
| Apr 1, 2020 | 2 km NE of Quinton, Oklahoma | M3.1 | 121 km | 9 km |
| Sep 21, 2019 | 2 km NNE of Quinton, Oklahoma | M2.9 | 122 km | 7 km |
| Feb 3, 2021 | 1 km SW of Quinton, Oklahoma | M2.9 | 125 km | 7 km |
| May 8, 2022 | 13 km WSW of Quinton, Oklahoma | M2.9 | 134 km | 7 km |
| Aug 14, 2024 | 13 km WSW of Quinton, Oklahoma | M2.9 | 134 km | 8 km |
| Aug 12, 2021 | 2 km E of Quinton, Oklahoma | M2.8 | 123 km | 7 km |
| Jul 8, 2019 | 3 km ENE of Quinton, OK | M2.8 | 121 km | 10 km |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 9 km SE of Foyil, Oklahoma | M2.8 | 80 km | 5 km |
| Jun 5, 2022 | 13 km WSW of Quinton, Oklahoma | M2.8 | 134 km | 8 km |
| Aug 15, 2019 | 2 km ENE of Quinton, Oklahoma | M2.8 | 122 km | 5 km |
| Aug 22, 2021 | 1 km E of Quinton, Oklahoma | M2.8 | 123 km | 7 km |
Source: USGS Earthquake Catalog (M2.5+, 1990–2025). Sorted by magnitude.
Tornado History
700 tornadoes (EF0+) recorded within 100 km since 1950. Strongest on record: EF5. Total: 44 fatalities, 734 injuries.
| Date | Rating | Distance | Path | Fatalities |
| Mar 26, 1976 | EF5 | 97 km | 11.9 mi | 2 |
| Apr 24, 1975 | EF4 | 85 km | 11.9 mi | 3 |
| May 26, 1973 | EF4 | 84 km | 3.6 mi | 5 |
| May 5, 1960 | EF4 | 77 km | 5.4 mi | 5 |
| Jan 22, 1957 | EF4 | 74 km | 0.1 mi | 10 |
| Apr 3, 1956 | EF4 | 83 km | 41.8 mi | 0 |
| May 25, 2024 | EF3 | 26 km | 7.9 mi | 0 |
| Mar 30, 2022 | EF3 | 45 km | 5.2 mi | 0 |
| May 22, 2011 | EF3 | 51 km | 17.9 mi | 0 |
| Dec 31, 2010 | EF3 | 11 km | 21.1 mi | 4 |
| Mar 12, 2006 | EF3 | 41 km | 29.0 mi | 0 |
| Mar 12, 2006 | EF3 | 18 km | 25.0 mi | 0 |
| Jun 1, 1999 | EF3 | 55 km | 2.0 mi | 2 |
| May 4, 1999 | EF3 | 56 km | 38.2 mi | 0 |
| Apr 21, 1996 | EF3 | 79 km | 10.1 mi | 2 |
| Apr 21, 1996 | EF3 | 86 km | 15.0 mi | 2 |
| Nov 22, 1983 | EF3 | 26 km | 19.0 mi | 0 |
| Dec 2, 1982 | EF3 | 75 km | 1.0 mi | 0 |
| Apr 19, 1981 | EF3 | 44 km | 3.0 mi | 0 |
| Apr 7, 1980 | EF3 | 65 km | 24.8 mi | 0 |
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center (EF0+, 1950–2024, US only).
Wildfire History
20 wildfires (100+ acres) recorded within 100 km. Largest: UNNAMED (18,089 acres, 2007).
| Year | Name | Acres Burned | Distance |
| 2007 | UNNAMED | 18,089 | 60 km |
| 2007 | UNNAMED | 14,774 | 80 km |
| 2004 | UNNAMED | 12,086 | 65 km |
| 2017 | MIDDLE RIDGE | 8,501 | 55 km |
| 2016 | UNNAMED | 7,919 | 91 km |
| 2013 | UNNAMED | 7,804 | 91 km |
| 2003 | UNNAMED | 7,415 | 73 km |
| 2019 | UNNAMED | 7,344 | 91 km |
| 2007 | UNNAMED | 6,657 | 54 km |
| 2017 | HILLTOP | 6,523 | 60 km |
| 2005 | TEXANNA ROAD | 6,139 | 99 km |
| 2010 | SPUD ROCK CENTRAL | 6,117 | 74 km |
| 2009 | TELAMAY HOLLOW | 5,686 | 17 km |
| 2006 | UNNAMED | 5,537 | 78 km |
| 2017 | PERSIMMON RIDGE | 5,333 | 61 km |
| 2009 | SAWMILL HOLLOW | 5,166 | 16 km |
| 2011 | GRUBER | 4,831 | 61 km |
| 2017 | UNNAMED | 4,818 | 80 km |
| 1992 | UNNAMED | 4,546 | 8 km |
| 2005 | FLAT ROCK | 4,472 | 59 km |
Source: NIFC/IRWIN Wildfire Records (100+ acres).
Monthly Weather
| Month | Avg Temperature | Precipitation | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 39°F (4°C) | 2.1 in | Coldest, Driest |
| February | 41°F (5°C) | 2.4 in | |
| March | 50°F (10°C) | 4.1 in | |
| April | 58°F (15°C) | 4.3 in | |
| May | 66°F (19°C) | 5.4 in | Wettest |
| June | 74°F (23°C) | 4.6 in | |
| July | 81°F (27°C) | 3.2 in | Warmest |
| August | 78°F (26°C) | 3.5 in | |
| September | 71°F (22°C) | 5.0 in | |
| October | 60°F (15°C) | 4.1 in | |
| November | 48°F (9°C) | 4.2 in | |
| December | 39°F (4°C) | 3.1 in |
Chance has a seasonal temperature swing of 42°F / from 39°F in January to 81°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 45.9 inches, with May being the wettest month (5.4") and January the driest (2.1").