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Bull Run CDP (Fairfax County), VA

Full City Profile · Virginia · Manassas Park city County

3.9 /5.0
B+ Good
7,513 Population 521/sq mi density
$238,500 Median Income $83,957 per capita
$879,000 Home Value $621,171 Zillow
$3,072 Median Rent 17.5% income on rent
56°F Avg Temperature 293 sunny days/yr
132 Violent Crime/100K 915 property/100K
B+
Overall
3.9 / 5.0
Good overall score based on economy, affordability, safety and education
A+
Economy
5.0 / 5.0
$238,500 median income, 1.4% unemployment
A+
Affordability
4.6 / 5.0
$879,000 home value, $3,072/mo rent
F
Safety
1.0 / 5.0
132 violent crimes/100K
A+
Education
5.0 / 5.0
71.7% bachelor's degree or higher
Bull Run CDP (Fairfax County) enjoys a temperate climate with an average annual temperature of 56°F (13°C). Winters average 34°F in January while summers reach 77°F in July. The area gets 293 sunny days per year. Annual precipitation totals 43.2 inches. The area receives 21.0 inches of snow annually. Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 35.

Temperature

34°F Jan (1°C) 77°F Jul (25°C)
Annual Average55.7°F
3% above US avg
January Average34°F (1°C)
July Average77°F (25°C)
Sunny Days293 days/yr

Geography

Elevation277 ft (84 m)
Area15.1 sq mi (39.0 km²)
Population Density521/sq mi
Coordinates38.8398°N, 77.4898°W
TimezoneAmerica/New_York
CountyManassas Park city County
Nearest AirportWashington Dulles International (IAD)
4 miles away

Precipitation & Snow

Annual Rainfall 43.2"
14% above US avg
Snowfall 21.0"
Wettest Month (May) 3.98"
Driest Month (Feb) 2.68"

Air Quality

AQI Median35.0
RatingGood

Natural Hazard Risk

Overall RiskVery Low
Risk Score4.9 / 100
Social Vulnerability26.8 / 100
Community Resilience12.0 / 100

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado Very Low
Hurricane Very Low
Earthquake Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Flood Very Low
Hail Very Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Winter Weather Very Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Drought No Rating
Cold Wave Very Low
Landslide Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)

Earthquake History

45 earthquakes (M2.5+) within 150 km since 1990. Strongest: M5.8. Most recent: M2.8 on Jan 14, 2025.

Aug 23, 2011 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia M5.8 111 km
Aug 25, 2011 8 km SW of Mineral, Virginia M4.5 108 km
Aug 24, 2011 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia M4.2 111 km
Mar 15, 1991 7 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia M3.8 127 km
May 5, 2003 Virginia M3.6 141 km
Jul 16, 2010 5 km NNW of Barnesville, Maryland M3.6 47 km
Aug 24, 2011 16 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia M3.4 120 km
Sep 1, 2011 7 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia M3.4 106 km
Sep 22, 2001 5 km E of Pantops, Virginia M3.2 120 km
Jan 30, 2012 9 km SSE of Louisa, Virginia M3.1 108 km
Jun 3, 2010 4 km ENE of Franklintown, Pennsylvania M3.1 146 km
Jan 17, 2016 3 km NE of Ranson, West Virginia M3.0 61 km
Oct 2, 2010 10 km NNW of Ashland, Virginia M3.0 110 km
Oct 12, 2011 9 km S of Louisa, Virginia M3.0 109 km
Mar 26, 2012 13 km S of Louisa, Virginia M3.0 113 km
Apr 24, 2009 1 km S of Franklintown, Pennsylvania M2.9 142 km
Sep 15, 2019 5 km ESE of East Berlin, Pennsylvania M2.8 131 km
Aug 23, 2011 9 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia M2.8 108 km
Mar 15, 2015 6 km SW of Mineral, Virginia M2.8 106 km
Apr 21, 1998 1 km NNW of Free Union, Virginia M2.8 120 km
Source: USGS (M2.5+, 1990–2025)

Hurricane History

5 hurricanes (Cat 1+) within 500 km since 1980. Strongest: Category 2. Most recent: Irene (2011, Cat 1).

Year Name Category Closest
2011 Irene Category 1 232 km
2003 Isabel Category 1 239 km
1999 Floyd Category 1 258 km
1986 Charley Category 1 256 km
1985 Gloria Category 2 264 km
Source: NOAA IBTrACS (Cat 1+, 1980–2026)

Tornado History

459 tornadoes (EF0+) within 100 km since 1950. Strongest: EF4. Total: 9 fatalities, 369 injuries.

Date Rating Distance Fatalities
Apr 28, 2002 EF4 42 km 3
Sep 24, 2001 EF4 52 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF3 45 km 0
Sep 24, 2001 EF3 45 km 2
Jul 19, 1996 EF3 86 km 0
Oct 18, 1990 EF3 73 km 0
May 22, 1983 EF3 98 km 0
Sep 5, 1979 EF3 36 km 1
Jan 26, 1978 EF3 41 km 1
Mar 21, 1976 EF3 93 km 0
Apr 1, 1973 EF3 15 km 0
Jun 9, 1961 EF3 85 km 0
Sep 1, 2021 EF2 77 km 0
Apr 19, 2019 EF2 99 km 0
Nov 2, 2018 EF2 63 km 0
Jul 23, 2017 EF2 100 km 0
May 8, 2008 EF2 53 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF2 35 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF2 69 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF2 74 km 0
Source: NOAA SPC (EF0+, 1950–2024)

Wildfire History

20 wildfires (100+ acres) within 100 km. Largest: PINNACLES (24,792 ac, 2000).

Year Name Acres Distance
2000 PINNACLES 24,792 76 km
2024 WATERFALL MOUNTAIN 9,251 96 km
2024 WAITES RUN 5,496 98 km
2002 FULTZ RUN 4,638 99 km
2019 UNNAMED 2,460 93 km
2012 NEIGHBOR MTN FIRE 1,986 78 km
2011 SMITH RUN FIRE 1,908 60 km
1999 BOOTEN GAP 1,652 93 km
2020 UNNAMED 1,572 99 km
1995 SHENGAP 1,385 99 km
2006 CARDINAL 1,345 95 km
2012 POINT 2 1,126 74 km
2024 ROCKY BRANCH 1,018 75 km
2011 CHOPPING ROAD 889 97 km
2024 SERENITY RIDGE FIRE 877 89 km
1999 DOG SLAUGH 838 95 km
1999 NCO 816 34 km
2019 KENNEDY PEAK 769 85 km
2008 CHICKEN RANCH 737 95 km
1984 UNNAMED 696 74 km
Source: NIFC/IRWIN (100+ acres)

Monthly Weather

Month Avg Temperature Precipitation Summary
January 34°F (1°C) 2.8 in Coldest
February 36°F (2°C) 2.7 in Driest
March 45°F (7°C) 3.4 in
April 55°F (13°C) 3.1 in
May 64°F (18°C) 4.0 in Wettest
June 73°F (23°C) 3.7 in
July 77°F (25°C) 3.5 in Warmest
August 76°F (24°C) 3.7 in
September 69°F (20°C) 3.6 in
October 57°F (14°C) 3.2 in
November 47°F (8°C) 3.4 in
December 38°F (3°C) 3.1 in

Bull Run CDP (Fairfax County) has a seasonal temperature swing of 43°F / from 34°F in January to 77°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 40.1 inches, with May being the wettest month (4.0") and February the driest (2.7").

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