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Bull Run CDP (Prince William County), VA

Full City Profile · Virginia · Manassas city County

3.4 /5.0
B Good
16,688 Population 6,394/sq mi density
$86,487 Median Income $38,953 per capita
$378,800 Home Value $549,186 Zillow
$1,912 Median Rent 28.8% income on rent
55°F Avg Temperature 297 sunny days/yr
328 Violent Crime/100K 1,705 property/100K
B
Overall
3.4 / 5.0
Good overall score based on economy, affordability, safety and education
A
Economy
4.3 / 5.0
$86,487 median income, 3.1% unemployment
A
Affordability
4.2 / 5.0
$378,800 home value, $1,912/mo rent
F
Safety
1.0 / 5.0
328 violent crimes/100K
B+
Education
4.0 / 5.0
37.3% bachelor's degree or higher
Bull Run CDP (Prince William County) experiences four distinct seasons with an average annual temperature of 55°F (13°C). Winters average 34°F in January while summers reach 75°F in July. The area gets 297 sunny days per year. Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 35.

Temperature

34°F Jan (1°C) 75°F Jul (24°C)
Annual Average54.9°F
2% above US avg
January Average34°F (1°C)
July Average75°F (24°C)
Sunny Days297 days/yr

Geography

Elevation287 ft (87 m)
Area2.6 sq mi (6.8 km²)
Population Density6,394/sq mi
Coordinates38.7801°N, 77.5204°W
TimezoneAmerica/New_York
CountyManassas city County
Nearest AirportManassas Regional/Harry P Davis Field (MNZ)
6 miles away

Precipitation & Snow

Wettest Month (May) 3.86"
Driest Month (Feb) 2.64"

Air Quality

AQI Median35.0
RatingGood

Natural Hazard Risk

Overall RiskVery Low
Risk Score16.6 / 100
Social Vulnerability19.2 / 100
Community Resilience9.3 / 100

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado Relatively Low
Hurricane Relatively Low
Earthquake Very Low
Wildfire Very Low
Flood Very Low
Hail Very Low
Strong Wind Relatively Low
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively Low
Ice Storm Very Low
Drought No Rating
Cold Wave Very Low
Landslide Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)

Earthquake History

44 earthquakes (M2.5+) within 150 km since 1990. Strongest: M5.8. Most recent: M2.8 on Jan 14, 2025.

Aug 23, 2011 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia M5.8 103 km
Aug 25, 2011 8 km SW of Mineral, Virginia M4.5 101 km
Aug 24, 2011 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia M4.2 103 km
Mar 15, 1991 7 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia M3.8 120 km
Jul 16, 2010 5 km NNW of Barnesville, Maryland M3.6 54 km
May 5, 2003 Virginia M3.6 134 km
Aug 24, 2011 16 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia M3.4 113 km
Sep 1, 2011 7 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia M3.4 99 km
Sep 22, 2001 5 km E of Pantops, Virginia M3.2 113 km
Jan 30, 2012 9 km SSE of Louisa, Virginia M3.1 101 km
May 22, 2014 15 km ENE of Cumberland, Virginia M3.1 147 km
Jan 17, 2016 3 km NE of Ranson, West Virginia M3.0 66 km
Oct 12, 2011 9 km S of Louisa, Virginia M3.0 102 km
Oct 2, 2010 10 km NNW of Ashland, Virginia M3.0 103 km
Mar 26, 2012 13 km S of Louisa, Virginia M3.0 105 km
Apr 24, 2009 1 km S of Franklintown, Pennsylvania M2.9 149 km
Sep 15, 2019 5 km ESE of East Berlin, Pennsylvania M2.8 138 km
Apr 21, 1998 1 km NNW of Free Union, Virginia M2.8 114 km
Aug 23, 2011 9 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia M2.8 101 km
Mar 15, 2015 6 km SW of Mineral, Virginia M2.8 99 km
Source: USGS (M2.5+, 1990-2025)

Hurricane History

5 hurricanes (Cat 1+) within 500 km since 1980. Strongest: Category 2. Most recent: Irene (2011, Cat 1).

Year Name Category Closest
2011 Irene Category 1 232 km
2003 Isabel Category 1 232 km
1999 Floyd Category 1 253 km
1986 Charley Category 1 255 km
1985 Gloria Category 2 266 km
Source: NOAA IBTrACS (Cat 1+, 1980-2026)

Tornado History

448 tornadoes (EF0+) within 100 km since 1950. Strongest: EF4. Total: 10 fatalities, 372 injuries.

Date Rating Distance Fatalities
Apr 28, 2002 EF4 39 km 3
Sep 24, 2001 EF4 46 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF3 38 km 0
Sep 24, 2001 EF3 50 km 2
Jul 19, 1996 EF3 93 km 0
Oct 18, 1990 EF3 66 km 0
Sep 5, 1979 EF3 38 km 1
Jan 26, 1978 EF3 37 km 1
Mar 21, 1976 EF3 87 km 0
Apr 1, 1973 EF3 17 km 0
Jun 9, 1961 EF3 91 km 0
Sep 30, 1959 EF3 95 km 1
Sep 1, 2021 EF2 81 km 0
Apr 19, 2019 EF2 92 km 0
Nov 2, 2018 EF2 70 km 0
May 8, 2008 EF2 47 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF2 10 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF2 97 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF2 20 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF2 67 km 0
Source: NOAA SPC (EF0+, 1950-2024)

Wildfire History

20 wildfires (100+ acres) within 100 km. Largest: PINNACLES (24,792 ac, 2000).

Year Name Acres Distance
2000 PINNACLES 24,792 72 km
2024 WATERFALL MOUNTAIN 9,251 92 km
2024 WAITES RUN 5,496 97 km
2002 FULTZ RUN 4,638 94 km
2019 UNNAMED 2,460 90 km
2012 NEIGHBOR MTN FIRE 1,986 74 km
2011 SMITH RUN FIRE 1,908 57 km
1999 BOOTEN GAP 1,652 88 km
2020 UNNAMED 1,572 97 km
1995 SHENGAP 1,385 94 km
2006 CARDINAL 1,345 91 km
2012 POINT 2 1,126 72 km
2024 ROCKY BRANCH 1,018 71 km
2011 CHOPPING ROAD 889 90 km
2024 SERENITY RIDGE FIRE 877 86 km
1999 DOG SLAUGH 838 91 km
1999 NCO 816 29 km
2019 KENNEDY PEAK 769 82 km
2008 CHICKEN RANCH 737 91 km
1984 UNNAMED 696 72 km
Source: NIFC/IRWIN (100+ acres)

Monthly Weather

Month Avg Temperature Precipitation Summary
January 34°F (1°C) 2.8 in Coldest
February 36°F (2°C) 2.6 in Driest
March 45°F (7°C) 3.2 in
April 55°F (13°C) 3.1 in
May 64°F (18°C) 3.9 in Wettest
June 72°F (22°C) 3.5 in
July 75°F (24°C) 3.4 in Warmest
August 75°F (24°C) 3.6 in
September 68°F (20°C) 3.5 in
October 57°F (14°C) 3.2 in
November 47°F (8°C) 3.3 in
December 38°F (3°C) 3.0 in

Bull Run CDP (Prince William County) has a seasonal temperature swing of 42°F / from 34°F in January to 75°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 39.1 inches, with May being the wettest month (3.9") and February the driest (2.6").

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