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Bull Run Mountain Estates, VA

Full City Profile · Virginia · Fauquier County County

4.2 /5.0
A Great
1,582 Population 899/sq mi density
$195,781 Median Income $56,914 per capita
$626,700 Home Value $1,097,135 Zillow
55°F Avg Temperature 297 sunny days/yr
A
Overall
4.2 / 5.0
Strong
A
Economy
4.4 / 5.0
$195,781 median income, 5.8% unemployment
A+
Affordability
4.9 / 5.0
$626,700 home value, /mo rent
C+
Safety
2.5 / 5.0
0 violent crimes/100K
A+
Education
5.0 / 5.0
73.1% bachelor's degree or higher
Bull Run Mountain Estates experiences four distinct seasons with an average annual temperature of 55°F (13°C). Winters average 34°F in January while summers reach 75°F in July. The area gets 297 sunny days per year. Air quality is rated Good with a median AQI of 35.

Temperature

34°F Jan (1°C) 75°F Jul (24°C)
Annual Average54.9°F
2% above US avg
January Average34°F (1°C)
July Average75°F (24°C)
Sunny Days297 days/yr

Geography

Elevation951 ft (290 m)
Area1.8 sq mi (4.6 km²)
Population Density899/sq mi
Coordinates38.9092°N, 77.6667°W
TimezoneAmerica/New_York
CountyFauquier County County
Nearest AirportWashington Dulles International (IAD)
9 miles away

Precipitation & Snow

Wettest Month (May) 4.09"
Driest Month (Feb) 2.64"

Air Quality

AQI Median35.0
RatingGood

Air Pollutants (EPA 2023)

Ozone (O₃)0.0426 ppm

Natural Hazard Risk

Overall RiskRelatively Low
Risk Score47.7 / 100
Social Vulnerability10.6 / 100
Community Resilience67.8 / 100

Hazard Breakdown

Tornado Very Low
Hurricane Relatively Low
Earthquake Relatively Low
Wildfire Very Low
Flood Relatively Low
Hail Relatively Low
Strong Wind Relatively Moderate
Heat Wave Relatively Low
Winter Weather Relatively Low
Lightning Relatively Moderate
Ice Storm Very Low
Drought Relatively Low
Cold Wave Very Low
Landslide Very Low
Avalanche Very Low
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (Dec 2025)

Earthquake History

45 earthquakes (M2.5+) within 150 km since 1990. Strongest: M5.8. Most recent: M2.8 on Jan 14, 2025.

Aug 23, 2011 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia M5.8 114 km
Aug 25, 2011 8 km SW of Mineral, Virginia M4.5 110 km
Aug 24, 2011 11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia M4.2 113 km
Mar 15, 1991 7 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia M3.8 131 km
May 5, 2003 Virginia M3.6 145 km
Jul 16, 2010 5 km NNW of Barnesville, Maryland M3.6 45 km
Aug 24, 2011 16 km NNW of Goochland, Virginia M3.4 123 km
Sep 1, 2011 7 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia M3.4 109 km
Sep 22, 2001 5 km E of Pantops, Virginia M3.2 117 km
Jan 30, 2012 9 km SSE of Louisa, Virginia M3.1 111 km
Jun 3, 2010 4 km ENE of Franklintown, Pennsylvania M3.1 144 km
Jan 17, 2016 3 km NE of Ranson, West Virginia M3.0 48 km
Oct 2, 2010 10 km NNW of Ashland, Virginia M3.0 118 km
Oct 12, 2011 9 km S of Louisa, Virginia M3.0 111 km
Mar 26, 2012 13 km S of Louisa, Virginia M3.0 115 km
Apr 24, 2009 1 km S of Franklintown, Pennsylvania M2.9 140 km
Sep 15, 2019 5 km ESE of East Berlin, Pennsylvania M2.8 130 km
Aug 23, 2011 9 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia M2.8 111 km
Mar 15, 2015 6 km SW of Mineral, Virginia M2.8 108 km
Apr 21, 1998 1 km NNW of Free Union, Virginia M2.8 114 km
Source: USGS (M2.5+, 1990–2025)

Hurricane History

5 hurricanes (Cat 1+) within 500 km since 1980. Strongest: Category 2. Most recent: Irene (2011, Cat 1).

Year Name Category Closest
2011 Irene Category 1 249 km
2003 Isabel Category 1 246 km
1999 Floyd Category 1 272 km
1986 Charley Category 1 273 km
1985 Gloria Category 2 281 km
Source: NOAA IBTrACS (Cat 1+, 1980–2026)

Tornado History

433 tornadoes (EF0+) within 100 km since 1950. Strongest: EF4. Total: 8 fatalities, 375 injuries.

Date Rating Distance Fatalities
Apr 28, 2002 EF4 58 km 3
Sep 24, 2001 EF4 47 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF3 45 km 0
Sep 24, 2001 EF3 60 km 2
Jul 19, 1996 EF3 88 km 0
Oct 18, 1990 EF3 73 km 0
May 22, 1983 EF3 95 km 0
Sep 5, 1979 EF3 53 km 1
Jan 26, 1978 EF3 56 km 1
Mar 21, 1976 EF3 86 km 0
Apr 1, 1973 EF3 32 km 0
Jun 9, 1961 EF3 96 km 0
Sep 30, 1959 EF3 95 km 1
Sep 1, 2021 EF2 93 km 0
Nov 2, 2018 EF2 65 km 0
May 8, 2008 EF2 62 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF2 52 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF2 23 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF2 74 km 0
Sep 17, 2004 EF2 89 km 0
Source: NOAA SPC (EF0+, 1950–2024)

Wildfire History

20 wildfires (100+ acres) within 100 km. Largest: PINNACLES (24,792 ac, 2000).

Year Name Acres Distance
2000 PINNACLES 24,792 66 km
2024 WATERFALL MOUNTAIN 9,251 83 km
2024 WAITES RUN 5,496 82 km
2002 FULTZ RUN 4,638 88 km
2012 SHIPWRECK 3,779 97 km
2021 UNNAMED 3,667 97 km
2014 CUB RUN RX 2,868 97 km
2019 UNNAMED 2,460 80 km
2012 NEIGHBOR MTN FIRE 1,986 66 km
2011 SMITH RUN FIRE 1,908 46 km
1999 BOOTEN GAP 1,652 84 km
2020 UNNAMED 1,572 83 km
1995 SHENGAP 1,385 88 km
2006 CARDINAL 1,345 82 km
2012 POINT 2 1,126 59 km
2024 ROCKY BRANCH 1,018 62 km
2024 SERENITY RIDGE FIRE 877 76 km
1999 DOG SLAUGH 838 85 km
1999 NCO 816 47 km
2019 KENNEDY PEAK 769 71 km
Source: NIFC/IRWIN (100+ acres)

Monthly Weather

Month Avg Temperature Precipitation Summary
January 34°F (1°C) 2.9 in Coldest
February 35°F (2°C) 2.6 in Driest
March 43°F (6°C) 3.3 in
April 53°F (12°C) 3.3 in
May 62°F (17°C) 4.1 in Wettest
June 71°F (21°C) 3.8 in
July 75°F (24°C) 3.7 in Warmest
August 74°F (23°C) 3.7 in
September 67°F (19°C) 3.7 in
October 55°F (13°C) 3.4 in
November 46°F (8°C) 3.5 in
December 37°F (3°C) 3.0 in

Bull Run Mountain Estates has a seasonal temperature swing of 42°F / from 34°F in January to 75°F in July. Total annual precipitation is 40.8 inches, with May being the wettest month (4.1") and February the driest (2.6").

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